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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Taylor Lapilus won · U-DEC R3

Elo1510

Elo1358

Taylor LapilusvsLeandro IssaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · Saturday, September 3, 2016Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

Official fight result

Taylor Lapilus won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTaylor Lapilus: Elusive strikervsLeandro Issa: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Taylor Lapilus wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Taylor Lapilus wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Taylor Lapilus at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Taylor Lapilus has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Taylor Lapilus (53.5%).
Taylor Lapilus has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Taylor Lapilus

Red Corner

Leandro Issa

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1510

Elo

1358

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Taylor LapilusW2 streak

oldest →

vs Erik Perez · Nov 15

vs Caolan Loughran · Sep 23

vs Farid Basharat · Jan 24

vs Cody Stamann · Jun 24

vs Vince Morales · Sep 24

latest

Leandro Issa

oldest →

SUBvs Russell Doane · Jan 14

SUBvs Jumabieke Tuerxun · Jul 14

SUBvs Ulka Sasaki · Dec 14

vs Iuri Alcantara · Aug 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Taylor LapilusMetricLeandro Issa

4.59

Strikes / min

2.08

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.17

62%

Strike defense

58%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

2.38

77%

Takedown defense

50%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.98Δ 3.07 — meaningful gap-1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Taylor LapilusLeandro Issa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Taylor Lapilus(8 fights)Leandro Issa(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +152.5|Blue -152.5

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Taylor LapilusTargetLeandro Issa

By target zone

38% acc · 78%

Head

16% acc · 32%

86% acc · 19%

Body

46% acc · 32%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

70% acc · 37%

By position

33% acc · 60%

Distance

28% acc · 84%

81% acc · 33%

Clinch

100% acc · 16%

80% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Taylor Lapilus rounds

even

Leandro Issa rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:55Control

Round 2Taylor Lapilus edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:26

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 3Taylor Lapilus edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:31

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 146

Sig Strikes

19 / 61

42.7%

Sig Str %

33.7%

84 / 168

Total Strikes

23 / 68

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 14

—

TD %

16%

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

6:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Leandro Issa	7 / 22	8 / 25	2 / 7
1	Taylor Lapilus	17 / 47	26 / 57	0 / 0
2	Leandro Issa	9 / 32	12 / 35	0 / 2
2	Taylor Lapilus	24 / 51	29 / 56	0 / 0
3	Leandro Issa	3 / 7	3 / 8	1 / 5
3	Taylor Lapilus	22 / 48	29 / 55	0 / 0

Taylor Lapilus

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Leandro Issa

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5