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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Taylor Lapilus won · U-DEC R3

Elo1510

Elo1508

Taylor LapilusvsCaolan LoughranUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Saturday, September 2, 2023Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Taylor Lapilus won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTaylor Lapilus: Elusive strikervsCaolan Loughran: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Taylor Lapilus wins(53.9%)

Actual result: Taylor Lapilus wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Taylor Lapilus at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Taylor Lapilus has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Taylor Lapilus (53.5%).
Taylor Lapilus has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Taylor Lapilus

Red Corner

Caolan Loughran

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1510

Elo

1508

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

185.42 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Taylor LapilusW2 streak

oldest →

vs Erik Perez · Nov 15

vs Leandro Issa · Sep 16

vs Farid Basharat · Jan 24

vs Cody Stamann · Jun 24

vs Vince Morales · Sep 24

latest

Caolan Loughran

oldest →

vs Angel Pacheco · Mar 24

vs Jake Hadley · Jul 24

vs Nathan Fletcher · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Taylor LapilusMetricCaolan Loughran

4.59

Strikes / min

4.73

2.61

Strikes absorbed / min

5.20

62%

Strike defense

52%

0.27

TDs / 15 min

3.00

77%

Takedown defense

87%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.98Δ 2.45 — meaningful gap-0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Taylor LapilusCaolan Loughran

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Taylor Lapilus(8 fights)Caolan Loughran(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.7|Blue -2.7

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -47.1|Blue +47.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Taylor LapilusTargetCaolan Loughran

By target zone

44% acc · 70%

Head

28% acc · 58%

78% acc · 21%

Body

57% acc · 27%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

78% acc · 15%

By position

51% acc · 90%

Distance

35% acc · 92%

58% acc · 8%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Taylor Lapilus rounds

even

Caolan Loughran rounds

Round 1Taylor Lapilus edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:47Control

Round 2Taylor Lapilus edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:10

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:55Control

Round 3Taylor Lapilus edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:08

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:44Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

84 / 163

Sig Strikes

48 / 132

51%

Sig Str %

36.3%

87 / 166

Total Strikes

70 / 166

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 11

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

6:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Caolan Loughran	19 / 57	20 / 58	1 / 2
1	Taylor Lapilus	30 / 57	31 / 58	0 / 0
2	Caolan Loughran	8 / 21	28 / 53	1 / 1
2	Taylor Lapilus	19 / 37	19 / 37	0 / 0
3	Caolan Loughran	21 / 54	22 / 55	0 / 8
3	Taylor Lapilus	35 / 69	37 / 71	0 / 0

Taylor Lapilus

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Caolan Loughran

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4