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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Tatsuya Kawajiri won · SUB R2

Elo1358

Elo1411

Tatsuya KawajirivsSean SorianoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs Lim · Saturday, January 4, 2014Singapore, Singapore

Official fight result

Tatsuya Kawajiri won

SUB · Round 2 · 0:50

Model Prediction: Sean Soriano wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Tatsuya Kawajiri wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Soriano at -108 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean Soriano enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Tatsuya Kawajiri

Red Corner

Sean Soriano

Blue Corner

-102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-108

(52%)

1358

Elo

1411

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tatsuya KawajiriL2 streak

oldest →

vs Clay Guida · Apr 14

vs Dennis Siver · Jun 15

vs Jason Knight · Dec 15

vs Dennis Bermudez · Feb 16

vs Cub Swanson · Aug 16

latest

Sean SorianoL4 streak

oldest →

vs Chas Skelly · Sep 14

SUBvs Charles Rosa · Jan 15

SUBvs Christos Giagos · May 21

vs Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tatsuya KawajiriMetricSean Soriano

2.04

Strikes / min

3.18

2.01

Strikes absorbed / min

2.14

50%

Strike defense

56%

3.63

TDs / 15 min

1.33

63%

Takedown defense

52%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.03Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap+1.04

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tatsuya Kawajiri(6 fights)Sean Soriano(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -53.9|Blue +53.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tatsuya KawajiriTargetSean Soriano

By target zone

88% acc · 94%

Head

67% acc · 74%

Body

100% acc · 16%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

60% acc · 19%

Distance

57% acc · 42%

Clinch

83% acc · 26%

100% acc · 81%

Ground

100% acc · 32%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tatsuya Kawajiri rounds

even

Sean Soriano rounds

Round 1Tatsuya Kawajiri edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns2

Control3:35

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control0:33

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 36

Sig Strikes

19 / 26

94%

Sig Str %

84.5%

62 / 66

Total Strikes

23 / 30

3 / 12

TDs

0 / 0

35%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:08

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sean Soriano	16 / 23	19 / 26	0 / 0	0
1	Tatsuya Kawajiri	31 / 35	61 / 65	2 / 10	0
2	Sean Soriano	3 / 3	4 / 4	0 / 0	0
2	Tatsuya Kawajiri	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 2	1

Tatsuya Kawajiri

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Sean Soriano

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5