← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Tatsuya Kawajiri won · U-DEC R3

Elo1358

Elo1369

Tatsuya KawajirivsJason KnightUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · Friday, December 11, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tatsuya Kawajiri won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTatsuya Kawajiri: WrestlervsJason Knight: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Tatsuya Kawajiri wins(80.7%)

Actual result: Tatsuya Kawajiri wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tatsuya Kawajiri at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jason Knight enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tatsuya Kawajiri has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tatsuya Kawajiri

Red Corner

Jason Knight

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1358

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'10"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tatsuya KawajiriL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Soriano · Jan 14

vs Clay Guida · Apr 14

vs Dennis Siver · Jun 15

vs Dennis Bermudez · Feb 16

vs Cub Swanson · Aug 16

latest

Jason KnightL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chas Skelly · May 17

KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Jul 17

vs Gabriel Benitez · Dec 17

vs Makwan Amirkhani · May 18

vs Jordan Rinaldi · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tatsuya KawajiriMetricJason Knight

2.04

Strikes / min

2.95

2.01

Strikes absorbed / min

3.02

50%

Strike defense

51%

3.63

TDs / 15 min

1.31

63%

Takedown defense

47%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.03evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tatsuya KawajiriJason Knight

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tatsuya Kawajiri(6 fights)Jason Knight(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.0|Blue +11.0

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -48.5|Blue +48.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tatsuya KawajiriTargetJason Knight

By target zone

71% acc · 89%

Head

68% acc · 100%

100% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 4%

Leg

0% acc

By position

50% acc · 21%

Distance

40% acc · 29%

Clinch

67% acc · 7%

85% acc · 79%

Ground

95% acc · 64%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tatsuya Kawajiri rounds

even

Jason Knight rounds

Round 1Tatsuya Kawajiri edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control4:41

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tatsuya Kawajiri edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control4:34

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tatsuya Kawajiri edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns3

Control4:22

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 38

Sig Strikes

28 / 42

72.3%

Sig Str %

55.3%

97 / 113

Total Strikes

44 / 61

6 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

86.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

13:37

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jason Knight	13 / 17	16 / 20	0 / 0	1
1	Tatsuya Kawajiri	11 / 14	26 / 31	1 / 1	0
2	Jason Knight	1 / 5	4 / 9	0 / 0	0
2	Tatsuya Kawajiri	10 / 13	52 / 57	2 / 2	0
3	Jason Knight	14 / 20	24 / 32	0 / 0	0
3	Tatsuya Kawajiri	7 / 11	19 / 25	3 / 5	0

Tatsuya Kawajiri

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Jason Knight

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9