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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tatsuro Taira won · SUB R1

Elo1526

Elo1503

Tatsuro TairavsJesus AguilarUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac · Saturday, February 4, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tatsuro Taira won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:20

Style matchupTatsuro Taira: WrestlervsJesus Aguilar: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Tatsuro Taira wins(77.9%)

Actual result: Tatsuro Taira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tatsuro Taira at -1250 American odds

+$8 profit

$108 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jesus Aguilar has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tatsuro Taira has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tatsuro Taira

Red Corner

Jesus Aguilar

Blue Corner

-1250

(93%)

Vegas Odds

+800

(11%)

1526

Elo

1503

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'4"

177.8 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tatsuro Taira

oldest →

KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 24

vs Brandon Royval · Oct 24

SUBvs HyunSung Park · Aug 25

KOvs Brandon Moreno · Dec 25

KOvs Joshua Van · May 26

latest

Jesus Aguilar

oldest →

vs Mateus Mendonca · Feb 24

SUBvs Stewart Nicoll · Aug 24

vs Rafael Estevam · Feb 25

vs Luis Gurule · Sep 25

vs Sumudaerji · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tatsuro TairaMetricJesus Aguilar

2.87

Strikes / min

2.54

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

2.29

44%

Strike defense

61%

3.57

TDs / 15 min

1.52

46%

Takedown defense

45%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tatsuro TairaJesus Aguilar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tatsuro Taira(10 fights)Jesus Aguilar(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.3|Blue -23.3

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tatsuro TairaTargetJesus Aguilar

By target zone

100% acc · 100%

Head

Body

100% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

Distance

100% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tatsuro Taira rounds

even

Jesus Aguilar rounds

Round 1Tatsuro Taira edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control3:49

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 1

Sig Strikes

2 / 2

100%

Sig Str %

100%

5 / 5

Total Strikes

2 / 2

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:49

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jesus Aguilar	2 / 2	2 / 2	0 / 0	1
1	Tatsuro Taira	1 / 1	5 / 5	1 / 1	2

Tatsuro Taira

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Jesus Aguilar

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights7