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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tatsuro Taira won · SUB R2

Elo1526

Elo1486

Tatsuro TairavsCJ VergaraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Saturday, October 15, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tatsuro Taira won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:19

Style matchupTatsuro Taira: WrestlervsCJ Vergara: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Tatsuro Taira wins(77.3%)

Actual result: Tatsuro Taira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tatsuro Taira at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

CJ Vergara enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Tatsuro Taira

Red Corner

CJ Vergara

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+230

(30%)

1526

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tatsuro Taira

oldest →

KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 24

vs Brandon Royval · Oct 24

SUBvs HyunSung Park · Aug 25

KOvs Brandon Moreno · Dec 25

KOvs Joshua Van · May 26

latest

CJ VergaraL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Lacerda · Mar 23

vs Vinicius Salvador · Jul 23

vs Asu Almabayev · Mar 24

KOvs Ramazan Temirov · Oct 24

SUBvs Edgar Chairez · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tatsuro TairaMetricCJ Vergara

2.87

Strikes / min

5.02

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

4.69

44%

Strike defense

53%

3.57

TDs / 15 min

0.00

46%

Takedown defense

60%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tatsuro TairaCJ Vergara

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tatsuro Taira(10 fights)CJ Vergara(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.5|Blue -39.5

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tatsuro TairaTargetCJ Vergara

By target zone

50% acc · 64%

Head

57% acc · 68%

100% acc · 23%

Body

83% acc · 26%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

58% acc · 68%

Distance

52% acc · 63%

75% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 16%

67% acc · 18%

Ground

100% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tatsuro Taira rounds

even

CJ Vergara rounds

Round 1Tatsuro Taira edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control3:30

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 2Tatsuro Taira edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control2:49

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 36

Sig Strikes

19 / 30

61.5%

Sig Str %

62.5%

31 / 46

Total Strikes

29 / 40

3 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

37.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:19

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	CJ Vergara	8 / 13	8 / 13	0 / 0	0
1	Tatsuro Taira	13 / 22	21 / 31	2 / 4	0
2	CJ Vergara	11 / 17	21 / 27	0 / 0	0
2	Tatsuro Taira	9 / 14	10 / 15	1 / 4	2

Tatsuro Taira

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

CJ Vergara

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8