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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tatsuro Taira won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1526

Elo1489

Tatsuro TairavsCarlos HernandezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Saturday, December 9, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tatsuro Taira won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:55

Style matchupTatsuro Taira: WrestlervsCarlos Hernandez: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tatsuro Taira wins(79.9%)

Actual result: Tatsuro Taira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tatsuro Taira at -620 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Carlos Hernandez has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tatsuro Taira

Red Corner

Carlos Hernandez

Blue Corner

-620

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+400

(20%)

1526

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tatsuro Taira

oldest →

KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 24

vs Brandon Royval · Oct 24

SUBvs HyunSung Park · Aug 25

KOvs Brandon Moreno · Dec 25

KOvs Joshua Van · May 26

latest

Carlos Hernandez

oldest →

SUBvs Allan Nascimento · Jan 23

vs Denys Bondar · Jun 23

vs Rei Tsuruya · Jun 24

vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · Nov 24

SUBvs HyunSung Park · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tatsuro TairaMetricCarlos Hernandez

2.87

Strikes / min

3.83

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

44%

Strike defense

50%

3.57

TDs / 15 min

1.56

46%

Takedown defense

65%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tatsuro TairaCarlos Hernandez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tatsuro Taira(10 fights)Carlos Hernandez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.4|Blue -37.4

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tatsuro TairaTargetCarlos Hernandez

By target zone

75% acc · 91%

Head

50% acc · 100%

100% acc · 3%

Body

100% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

88% acc · 21%

Distance

50% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

76% acc · 79%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tatsuro Taira rounds

even

Carlos Hernandez rounds

Round 1Tatsuro Taira edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control3:21

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 2Tatsuro Taira edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:15

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 43

Sig Strikes

2 / 4

75%

Sig Str %

33%

44 / 60

Total Strikes

2 / 4

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:36

Ctrl Time

0:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Carlos Hernandez	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 2
1	Tatsuro Taira	12 / 19	20 / 29	0 / 0
2	Carlos Hernandez	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0
2	Tatsuro Taira	21 / 24	24 / 31	0 / 0

Tatsuro Taira

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Carlos Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7