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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tatsuro Taira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1526

Elo1439

Tatsuro TairavsCarlos CandelarioUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · Saturday, May 14, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tatsuro Taira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTatsuro Taira: WrestlervsCarlos Candelario: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tatsuro Taira wins(55.8%)

Actual result: Tatsuro Taira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tatsuro Taira at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Carlos Candelario (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tatsuro Taira

Red Corner

Carlos Candelario

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1526

Elo

1439

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tatsuro Taira

oldest →

KOvs Alex Perez · Jun 24

vs Brandon Royval · Oct 24

SUBvs HyunSung Park · Aug 25

KOvs Brandon Moreno · Dec 25

KOvs Joshua Van · May 26

latest

Carlos Candelario

oldest →

SUBvs Jake Hadley · Nov 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tatsuro TairaMetricCarlos Candelario

2.87

Strikes / min

3.97

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

5.17

44%

Strike defense

44%

3.57

TDs / 15 min

2.28

46%

Takedown defense

53%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23evenly matched on net striking-1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tatsuro TairaCarlos Candelario

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tatsuro Taira(10 fights)Carlos Candelario(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +86.5|Blue -86.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tatsuro TairaTargetCarlos Candelario

By target zone

61% acc · 79%

Head

22% acc · 67%

83% acc · 9%

Body

50% acc · 33%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

0% acc

By position

50% acc · 26%

Distance

26% acc · 100%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

73% acc · 70%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tatsuro Taira rounds

even

Carlos Candelario rounds

Round 1Tatsuro Taira edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:45

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 2Tatsuro Taira edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control3:13

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Tatsuro Taira edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control2:59

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 87

Sig Strikes

9 / 34

65.7%

Sig Str %

28.7%

89 / 132

Total Strikes

21 / 47

1 / 5

TDs

2 / 5

20%

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

6:57

Ctrl Time

3:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Carlos Candelario	5 / 24	10 / 29	1 / 3	0
1	Tatsuro Taira	13 / 24	15 / 27	1 / 5	0
2	Carlos Candelario	4 / 6	11 / 14	0 / 1	0
2	Tatsuro Taira	15 / 19	31 / 40	0 / 0	1
3	Carlos Candelario	0 / 4	0 / 4	1 / 1	1
3	Tatsuro Taira	29 / 44	43 / 65	0 / 0	2

Tatsuro Taira

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Carlos Candelario

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights2