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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tatiana Suarez won · SUB R2

Elo1527

Elo1499

Tatiana SuarezvsMontana De La RosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Saturday, February 25, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tatiana Suarez won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:51

Style matchupTatiana Suarez: WrestlervsMontana De La Rosa: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tatiana Suarez wins(89.8%)

Actual result: Tatiana Suarez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tatiana Suarez at -750 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Tatiana Suarez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tatiana Suarez

Red Corner

Montana De La Rosa

Blue Corner

-750

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+550

(15%)

1527

Elo

1499

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tatiana SuarezW2 streak

oldest →

vs Nina Ansaroff · Jun 19

SUBvs Jessica Andrade · Aug 23

vs Zhang Weili · Feb 25

vs Amanda Lemos · Sep 25

SUBvs Loopy Godinez · Apr 26

latest

Montana De La Rosa

oldest →

vs Viviane Araujo · Sep 20

KOvs Ariane Lipski · Jun 21

vs Maycee Barber · Apr 22

vs JJ Aldrich · Oct 23

vs Andrea Lee · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tatiana SuarezMetricMontana De La Rosa

2.86

Strikes / min

2.90

1.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.39

44%

Strike defense

45%

4.52

TDs / 15 min

1.85

57%

Takedown defense

68%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.23Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap-0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tatiana SuarezMontana De La Rosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tatiana Suarez(10 fights)Montana De La Rosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.4|Blue -28.4

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +1050.0|Blue -1050.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tatiana SuarezTargetMontana De La Rosa

By target zone

0% acc

Head

40% acc · 80%

80% acc · 80%

Body

100% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

60% acc · 30%

Distance

14% acc · 20%

88% acc · 70%

Clinch

100% acc · 80%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tatiana Suarez rounds

even

Montana De La Rosa rounds

Round 1Tatiana Suarez edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control4:26

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tatiana Suarez edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:19

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 13

Sig Strikes

5 / 11

73.5%

Sig Str %

41.5%

37 / 43

Total Strikes

36 / 46

2 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

37.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:45

Ctrl Time

0:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Montana De La Rosa	4 / 8	28 / 36	0 / 0	0
1	Tatiana Suarez	7 / 8	26 / 30	1 / 4	0
2	Montana De La Rosa	1 / 3	8 / 10	0 / 0	0
2	Tatiana Suarez	3 / 5	11 / 13	1 / 2	1

Tatiana Suarez

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9

Montana De La Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights11