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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Tatiana Suarez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1527

Elo1488

Tatiana SuarezvsAmanda LemosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Saturday, September 13, 2025San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Tatiana Suarez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTatiana Suarez: WrestlervsAmanda Lemos: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tatiana Suarez wins(87.2%)

Actual result: Tatiana Suarez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tatiana Suarez at -430 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tatiana Suarez threatens submissions; Amanda Lemos has lost 33% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Tatiana Suarez

Red Corner

Amanda Lemos

Blue Corner

-430

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1527

Elo

1488

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'4"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tatiana Suarez

oldest →

vs Nina Ansaroff · Jun 19

SUBvs Montana De La Rosa · Feb 23

SUBvs Jessica Andrade · Aug 23

vs Zhang Weili · Feb 25

SUBvs Loopy Godinez · Apr 26

latest

Amanda Lemos

oldest →

vs Zhang Weili · Aug 23

vs Mackenzie Dern · Feb 24

SUBvs Virna Jandiroba · Jul 24

vs Iasmin Lucindo · Mar 25

vs Gillian Robertson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tatiana SuarezMetricAmanda Lemos

2.86

Strikes / min

2.75

1.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

44%

Strike defense

45%

4.52

TDs / 15 min

1.02

57%

Takedown defense

63%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.23Δ 1.49 — meaningful gap-0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tatiana SuarezAmanda Lemos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tatiana Suarez(10 fights)Amanda Lemos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.1|Blue -39.1

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tatiana SuarezTargetAmanda Lemos

By target zone

9% acc · 5%

Head

57% acc · 52%

59% acc · 50%

Body

80% acc · 17%

82% acc · 45%

Leg

100% acc · 30%

By position

38% acc · 45%

Distance

64% acc · 61%

73% acc · 55%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

Ground

71% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tatiana Suarez rounds

even

Amanda Lemos rounds

Round 1Tatiana Suarez edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:58

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Tatiana Suarez edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control4:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tatiana Suarez edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:36

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 39

Sig Strikes

23 / 33

52.7%

Sig Str %

80.7%

70 / 91

Total Strikes

39 / 49

3 / 12

TDs

0 / 0

30%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

9:34

Ctrl Time

0:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Amanda Lemos	5 / 6	6 / 7	0 / 0	0
1	Tatiana Suarez	7 / 10	25 / 30	1 / 5	0
2	Amanda Lemos	5 / 5	16 / 16	0 / 0	1
2	Tatiana Suarez	5 / 14	27 / 36	1 / 2	0
3	Amanda Lemos	13 / 22	17 / 26	0 / 0	0
3	Tatiana Suarez	8 / 15	18 / 25	1 / 5	0

Tatiana Suarez

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights9

Amanda Lemos

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights15