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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Joby Sanchez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1369

Tateki MatsudavsJoby SanchezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · Sunday, January 18, 2015Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Joby Sanchez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Tateki Matsuda wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Joby Sanchez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tateki Matsuda at +210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joby Sanchez enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Joby Sanchez has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tateki Matsuda

Red Corner

Joby Sanchez

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1354

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

165.1 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tateki Matsuda

oldest →

vs Chris Beal · Sep 14

latest

Joby SanchezL4 streak

oldest →

vs Wilson Reis · Aug 14

KOvs Geane Herrera · Dec 15

SUBvs Roberto Sanchez · Feb 18

vs Mark De La Rosa · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tateki MatsudaMetricJoby Sanchez

3.20

Strikes / min

3.22

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

2.82

69%

Strike defense

63%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.95

16%

Takedown defense

51%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.23evenly matched on net striking+0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tateki MatsudaJoby Sanchez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tateki Matsuda(2 fights)Joby Sanchez(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -14.5|Blue +14.5

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -13.0|Blue +13.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tateki MatsudaTargetJoby Sanchez

By target zone

30% acc · 80%

Head

25% acc · 86%

43% acc · 11%

Body

78% acc · 12%

83% acc · 9%

Leg

50% acc · 2%

By position

31% acc · 87%

Distance

23% acc · 72%

54% acc · 13%

Clinch

56% acc · 9%

Ground

65% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tateki Matsuda rounds

even

Joby Sanchez rounds

Round 1Joby Sanchez edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Tateki Matsuda edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 3Joby Sanchez edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 167

Sig Strikes

58 / 211

33.3%

Sig Str %

27%

62 / 177

Total Strikes

67 / 222

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 2

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

2:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joby Sanchez	15 / 55	19 / 59	0 / 0	1
1	Tateki Matsuda	19 / 43	20 / 44	0 / 0	0
2	Joby Sanchez	17 / 78	17 / 79	1 / 1	0
2	Tateki Matsuda	23 / 64	24 / 65	0 / 0	0
3	Joby Sanchez	26 / 78	31 / 84	1 / 1	0
3	Tateki Matsuda	13 / 60	18 / 68	0 / 1	0

Tateki Matsuda

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Joby Sanchez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5