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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Dos Anjos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1361

Elo1491

Tarec SaffiedinevsRafael Dos AnjosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · Saturday, June 17, 2017Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Rafael Dos Anjos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos wins(53.2%)

Actual result: Rafael Dos Anjos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Dos Anjos at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tarec Saffiedine has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tarec Saffiedine (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Tarec Saffiedine

Red Corner

Rafael Dos Anjos

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1361

Elo

1491

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tarec SaffiedineL2 streak

oldest →

vs Hyun Gyu Lim · Jan 14

KOvs Rory MacDonald · Oct 14

vs Jake Ellenberger · Jan 16

vs Rick Story · May 16

vs Dong Hyun Kim · Dec 16

latest

Rafael Dos AnjosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jul 22

SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Dec 22

vs Vicente Luque · Aug 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Mar 24

KOvs Geoff Neal · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tarec SaffiedineMetricRafael Dos Anjos

4.05

Strikes / min

3.48

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

62%

Strike defense

60%

0.52

TDs / 15 min

1.95

84%

Takedown defense

54%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99evenly matched on net striking+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tarec SaffiedineRafael Dos Anjos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tarec Saffiedine(6 fights)Rafael Dos Anjos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -129.9|Blue +129.9

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -55.0|Blue +55.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tarec SaffiedineTargetRafael Dos Anjos

By target zone

30% acc · 57%

Head

35% acc · 43%

93% acc · 23%

Body

76% acc · 46%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

90% acc · 11%

By position

37% acc · 73%

Distance

45% acc · 69%

80% acc · 27%

Clinch

77% acc · 25%

Ground

71% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tarec Saffiedine rounds

even

Rafael Dos Anjos rounds

Round 1Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control1:58

22Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:04Control

Round 2Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control1:18

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:51Control

Round 3Rafael Dos Anjos edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:24

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 139

Sig Strikes

81 / 158

47%

Sig Str %

50.3%

71 / 151

Total Strikes

91 / 169

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 5

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:40

Ctrl Time

3:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rafael Dos Anjos	22 / 48	26 / 53	1 / 1	1
1	Tarec Saffiedine	15 / 25	19 / 30	1 / 1	0
2	Rafael Dos Anjos	28 / 55	31 / 58	0 / 4	0
2	Tarec Saffiedine	21 / 43	26 / 48	0 / 0	0
3	Rafael Dos Anjos	31 / 55	34 / 58	0 / 0	0
3	Tarec Saffiedine	24 / 71	26 / 73	0 / 0	0

Tarec Saffiedine

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Rafael Dos Anjos

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights32