Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tarec Saffiedine won · U-DEC R3

Elo1361

Elo1367

Tarec SaffiedinevsJake EllenbergerUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · Saturday, January 30, 2016Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Tarec Saffiedine won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTarec Saffiedine: Well-roundedvsJake Ellenberger: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tarec Saffiedine wins(65.6%)

Actual result: Tarec Saffiedine wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tarec Saffiedine at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tarec Saffiedine enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Jake Ellenberger enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Tarec Saffiedine (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Tarec Saffiedine

Red Corner

Jake Ellenberger

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1361

Elo

1367

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tarec SaffiedineL4 streak

oldest →

vs Hyun Gyu Lim · Jan 14

KOvs Rory MacDonald · Oct 14

vs Rick Story · May 16

vs Dong Hyun Kim · Dec 16

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jun 17

latest

Jake EllenbergerL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matt Brown · Jul 16

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16

KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tarec SaffiedineMetricJake Ellenberger

4.05

Strikes / min

2.47

3.06

Strikes absorbed / min

2.83

62%

Strike defense

60%

0.52

TDs / 15 min

2.04

84%

Takedown defense

86%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.99Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tarec SaffiedineJake Ellenberger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tarec Saffiedine(6 fights)Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.5|Blue +6.5

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +281.0|Blue -281.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tarec SaffiedineTargetJake Ellenberger

By target zone

29% acc · 56%

Head

27% acc · 80%

76% acc · 24%

Body

67% acc · 20%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

37% acc · 81%

Distance

23% acc · 67%

77% acc · 19%

Clinch

77% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tarec Saffiedine rounds

even

Jake Ellenberger rounds

Round 1Tarec Saffiedine edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Tarec Saffiedine edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Tarec Saffiedine edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control1:01

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 131

Sig Strikes

30 / 99

41%

Sig Str %

30%

58 / 135

Total Strikes

39 / 109

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 4

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:01

Ctrl Time

0:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jake Ellenberger	12 / 39	14 / 41	0 / 0
1	Tarec Saffiedine	18 / 45	19 / 46	0 / 0
2	Jake Ellenberger	9 / 33	9 / 33	0 / 1
2	Tarec Saffiedine	16 / 44	17 / 45	0 / 1
3	Jake Ellenberger	9 / 27	16 / 35	0 / 3
3	Tarec Saffiedine	20 / 42	22 / 44	0 / 0

Tarec Saffiedine

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights19