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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Rodrigo Nascimento won · S-DEC R3

Elo1484

Elo1500

Tanner BoservsRodrigo NascimentoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Saturday, September 17, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rodrigo Nascimento won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTanner Boser: StrikervsRodrigo Nascimento: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Rodrigo Nascimento wins(62.7%)

Actual result: Rodrigo Nascimento wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rodrigo Nascimento at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tanner Boser is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Rodrigo Nascimento has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Tanner Boser has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rodrigo Nascimento has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tanner Boser

Red Corner

Rodrigo Nascimento

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1484

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tanner Boser

oldest →

vs Ilir Latifi · Jun 21

KOvs Ovince Saint Preux · Jun 21

KOvs Ion Cutelaba · Apr 23

vs Aleksa Camur · Aug 23

KOvs Gokhan Saricam · Apr 26

latest

Rodrigo NascimentoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alan Baudot · Jul 21

vs Ilir Latifi · May 23

vs Don'Tale Mayes · Nov 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · May 24

vs Alexandr Romanov · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tanner BoserMetricRodrigo Nascimento

4.82

Strikes / min

3.71

3.00

Strikes absorbed / min

4.34

57%

Strike defense

44%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.02

69%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.82Δ 2.45 — meaningful gap-0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tanner BoserRodrigo Nascimento

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tanner Boser(10 fights)Rodrigo Nascimento(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.9|Blue +15.9

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tanner BoserTargetRodrigo Nascimento

By target zone

46% acc · 65%

Head

40% acc · 89%

81% acc · 21%

Body

80% acc · 11%

75% acc · 15%

Leg

By position

53% acc · 95%

Distance

38% acc · 83%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tanner Boser rounds

even

Rodrigo Nascimento rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:58

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:43Control

Round 2Tanner Boser edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:48Control

Round 3Rodrigo Nascimento edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:30Control

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 115

Sig Strikes

36 / 86

54.3%

Sig Str %

41.3%

163 / 220

Total Strikes

91 / 149

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 7

—

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:58

Ctrl Time

8:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rodrigo Nascimento	9 / 21	37 / 50	1 / 2	0
1	Tanner Boser	15 / 23	31 / 41	0 / 0	0
2	Rodrigo Nascimento	15 / 37	18 / 41	1 / 2	1
2	Tanner Boser	32 / 57	42 / 67	0 / 0	0
3	Rodrigo Nascimento	12 / 28	36 / 58	1 / 3	0
3	Tanner Boser	15 / 35	90 / 112	0 / 0	0

Tanner Boser

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Rodrigo Nascimento

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8