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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ion Cutelaba won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1484
Tanner Boser
Elo1498
Ion Cutelaba

Tanner BoservsIon CutelabaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · Saturday, April 15, 2023Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Ion Cutelaba won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:05

Style matchupTanner Boser: StrikervsIon Cutelaba: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Ion Cutelaba wins(65.7%)

Actual result: Ion Cutelaba wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ion Cutelaba at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tanner Boser has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Ion Cutelaba (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tanner Boser
Red Corner
VS
Ion Cutelaba
Blue Corner
+108
(48%)
Vegas Odds
-130
(57%)
1484
Elo
1498
34
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tanner Boser
oldest →
L
vs Ilir Latifi · Jun 21
W
KOvs Ovince Saint Preux · Jun 21
L
vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Sep 22
W
vs Aleksa Camur · Aug 23
L
KOvs Gokhan Saricam · Apr 26
latest
Ion Cutelaba
oldest →
W
vs Ivan Erslan · Sep 24
W
SUBvs Ibo Aslan · Feb 25
L
vs Modestas Bukauskas · May 25
W
SUBvs Oumar Sy · Mar 26
L
KOvs Navajo Stirling · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tanner BoserMetricIon Cutelaba
4.82
Strikes / min
4.23
3.00
Strikes absorbed / min
3.28
57%
Strike defense
47%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
3.76
69%
Takedown defense
75%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.82evenly matched on net striking+0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1499 vs 1466Strikes4.7 vs 4.4Takedowns0.0 vs 4.2Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.5 vs -0.8
Tanner BoserIon Cutelaba

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Tanner Boser(10 fights)Ion Cutelaba(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -13.2|Blue +13.2
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +63.0|Blue -63.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tanner BoserTargetIon Cutelaba

By target zone

5
33% acc · 100%
Head
27
75% acc · 90%
0
0% acc
Body
2
67% acc · 7%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 3%

By position

5
31% acc · 100%
Distance
14
58% acc · 47%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
16
100% acc · 53%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Tanner Boser rounds
0
even
1
Ion Cutelaba rounds
Round 1Ion Cutelaba edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
30Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:17Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
5 / 16
Sig Strikes
30 / 40
31%
Sig Str %
75%
5 / 16
Total Strikes
30 / 40
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ion Cutelaba30 / 4030 / 401 / 10
1Tanner Boser5 / 165 / 160 / 00

Tanner Boser

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10

Ion Cutelaba

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights20