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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Krzysztof Jotko won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1358
Elo1496
Krzysztof Jotko

Tamdan McCroryvsKrzysztof JotkoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · Saturday, June 18, 2016Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Krzysztof Jotko won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:59

Style matchupTamdan McCrory: WrestlervsKrzysztof Jotko: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tamdan McCrory wins(61.6%)

Actual result: Krzysztof Jotko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tamdan McCrory at -170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tamdan McCrory threatens submissions; Krzysztof Jotko has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Krzysztof Jotko has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Krzysztof Jotko has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Tamdan McCrory (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Tamdan McCrory
Red Corner
VS
Krzysztof Jotko
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+150
(40%)
1358
Elo
1496
39
Age
36
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
6'4"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tamdan McCrory
oldest →
W
SUBvs Josh Samman · Dec 15
L
KOvs Nate Marquardt · Oct 16
latest
Krzysztof Jotko
oldest →
W
vs Eryk Anders · May 20
L
vs Sean Strickland · May 21
W
vs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 21
W
vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 22
L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Oct 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tamdan McCroryMetricKrzysztof Jotko
2.07
Strikes / min
2.98
1.60
Strikes absorbed / min
2.23
46%
Strike defense
57%
2.28
TDs / 15 min
1.33
33%
Takedown defense
82%
2.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.47evenly matched on net striking+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1521 vs 1551Strikes20.3 vs 40.6Takedowns1.6 vs 1.2Sub Atts1.57 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.8
Tamdan McCroryKrzysztof Jotko

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Tamdan McCrory(3 fights)Krzysztof Jotko(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -138.0|Blue +138.0
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red +70.0|Blue -70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tamdan McCroryTargetKrzysztof Jotko

By target zone

1
20% acc · 50%
Head
4
50% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 50%
Body
0
0
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

2
33% acc · 100%
Distance
2
25% acc · 50%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Tamdan McCrory rounds
0
even
1
Krzysztof Jotko rounds
Round 1Krzysztof Jotko edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
2 / 6
Sig Strikes
4 / 10
33%
Sig Str %
40%
2 / 6
Total Strikes
4 / 10
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Krzysztof Jotko4 / 104 / 100 / 00
1Tamdan McCrory2 / 62 / 60 / 00

Tamdan McCrory

StanceSwitch
Height76.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3

Krzysztof Jotko

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16