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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Irene Aldana won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1499

Talita BernardovsIrene AldanaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · Sunday, January 14, 2018St. Louis, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Irene Aldana won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Talita Bernardo wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Irene Aldana wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Talita Bernardo at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Irene Aldana has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Talita Bernardo

Red Corner

Irene Aldana

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1492

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'9"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Talita Bernardo

oldest →

KOvs Marion Reneau · Sep 17

vs Sarah Moras · Oct 18

KOvs Viviane Araujo · May 19

latest

Irene Aldana

oldest →

KOvs Yana Kunitskaya · Jul 21

KOvs Macy Chiasson · Sep 22

vs Amanda Nunes · Jun 23

vs Karol Rosa · Dec 23

vs Norma Dumont · Sep 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Talita BernardoMetricIrene Aldana

3.12

Strikes / min

5.19

4.04

Strikes absorbed / min

6.64

55%

Strike defense

56%

1.62

TDs / 15 min

0.15

28%

Takedown defense

77%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92evenly matched on net striking-1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Talita BernardoIrene Aldana

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Talita Bernardo(4 fights)Irene Aldana(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.4|Blue +7.4

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -3.4|Blue +3.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Talita BernardoTargetIrene Aldana

By target zone

45% acc · 67%

Head

37% acc · 81%

75% acc · 7%

Body

77% acc · 14%

86% acc · 26%

Leg

60% acc · 4%

By position

50% acc · 78%

Distance

33% acc · 66%

67% acc · 4%

Clinch

60% acc · 4%

67% acc · 17%

Ground

81% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Talita Bernardo rounds

even

Irene Aldana rounds

Round 1Irene Aldana edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control1:38

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:51Control

Round 2Talita Bernardo edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control3:39

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Irene Aldana edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:42

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 87

Sig Strikes

70 / 171

51.7%

Sig Str %

40.3%

74 / 119

Total Strikes

148 / 258

1 / 11

TDs

1 / 2

16.7%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

5:59

Ctrl Time

1:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Irene Aldana	28 / 72	57 / 107	1 / 1
1	Talita Bernardo	13 / 26	19 / 32	0 / 5
2	Irene Aldana	12 / 29	55 / 75	0 / 1
2	Talita Bernardo	12 / 27	34 / 53	1 / 2
3	Irene Aldana	30 / 70	36 / 76	0 / 0
3	Talita Bernardo	21 / 34	21 / 34	0 / 4

Talita Bernardo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4

Irene Aldana

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14