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Strawweight
3 Rounds
Talita Alencar won · Decision R3
Elo1548
Elo1491

Talita AlencarvsJulia PolastriUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Saturday, April 25, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Talita Alencar won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTalita Alencar: WrestlervsJulia Polastri: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Talita Alencar wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Talita Alencar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Julia Polastri has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Talita Alencar
Red Corner
VS
Julia Polastri
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1548
Elo
1491
35
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'1"
Height
5'2"
147.32 cm
Reach
160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Talita AlencarW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Rayanne dos Santos · Dec 23
L
vs Stephanie Luciano · Aug 24
W
vs Vanessa Demopoulos · Apr 25
W
SUBvs Ariane Carnelossi · Nov 25
latest
Julia Polastri
oldest →
L
vs Josefine Knutsson · Jun 24
W
vs Cory McKenna · Oct 24
L
vs Loopy Godinez · Mar 25
W
KOvs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Oct 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Talita AlencarMetricJulia Polastri
3.09
Strikes / min
6.22
3.67
Strikes absorbed / min
5.18
51%
Strike defense
59%
3.01
TDs / 15 min
0.62
66%
Takedown defense
57%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.58Δ 1.62 — meaningful gap+1.04
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Talita Alencar(5 fights)Julia Polastri(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +56.6|Blue -56.6
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Talita Alencar

StanceOrthodox
Height61.0"
Reach58.0"
Fights5

Julia Polastri

StanceOrthodox
Height62.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights5