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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Talita Alencar won · SUB R3

Elo1548

Elo1477

Talita AlencarvsAriane CarnelossiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Saturday, November 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Talita Alencar won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:36

Model Prediction: Talita Alencar wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Talita Alencar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Talita Alencar at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Talita Alencar has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Talita Alencar

Red Corner

Ariane Carnelossi

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+188

(35%)

1548

Elo

1477

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'1"

Height

5'2"

147.32 cm

Reach

154.94 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Talita AlencarW2 streak

oldest →

vs Rayanne dos Santos · Dec 23

vs Stephanie Luciano · Aug 24

vs Vanessa Demopoulos · Apr 25

DECvs Julia Polastri · Apr 26

latest

Ariane Carnelossi

oldest →

KOvs Na Liang · Apr 21

SUBvs Istela Nunes · Oct 21

vs Loopy Godinez · May 22

vs Piera Rodriguez · May 24

KOvs Ketlen Souza · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Talita AlencarMetricAriane Carnelossi

3.09

Strikes / min

2.63

3.67

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

51%

Strike defense

44%

3.01

TDs / 15 min

1.08

66%

Takedown defense

22%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.58Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap-1.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Talita AlencarAriane Carnelossi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Talita Alencar(5 fights)Ariane Carnelossi(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +70.8|Blue -70.8

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -322.0|Blue +322.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Talita AlencarTargetAriane Carnelossi

By target zone

51% acc · 57%

Head

18% acc · 40%

83% acc · 32%

Body

60% acc · 12%

70% acc · 12%

Leg

86% acc · 48%

By position

48% acc · 52%

Distance

35% acc · 100%

93% acc · 23%

Clinch

0% acc

75% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Talita Alencar rounds

even

Ariane Carnelossi rounds

Round 1Talita Alencar edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns2

Control1:51

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:39Control

Round 2Talita Alencar edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns2

Control1:30

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 3Talita Alencar edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control2:49

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 100

Sig Strikes

25 / 76

60.3%

Sig Str %

30.3%

79 / 122

Total Strikes

50 / 106

5 / 8

TDs

0 / 1

72%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:10

Ctrl Time

2:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ariane Carnelossi	1 / 17	24 / 43	0 / 0	0
1	Talita Alencar	18 / 30	26 / 38	2 / 4	0
2	Ariane Carnelossi	10 / 35	11 / 37	0 / 1	0
2	Talita Alencar	20 / 39	23 / 45	2 / 3	1
3	Ariane Carnelossi	14 / 24	15 / 26	0 / 0	0
3	Talita Alencar	22 / 31	30 / 39	1 / 1	1

Talita Alencar

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach58.0"

Fights5

Ariane Carnelossi

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach61.0"

Fights7