← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Takeya Mizugaki won · S-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1352

Takeya MizugakivsReuben DuranUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann · Thursday, March 3, 2011Louisville, Kentucky, USA

Official fight result

Takeya Mizugaki won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Takeya Mizugaki wins(50.0%)

Actual result: Takeya Mizugaki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Takeya Mizugaki at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Takeya Mizugaki has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Takeya Mizugaki

Red Corner

Reuben Duran

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1359

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Takeya MizugakiL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Cruz · Sep 14

SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 15

vs George Roop · Sep 15

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 16

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Dec 16

latest

Reuben DuranL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Francisco Rivera · Jun 11

KOvs Hugo Viana · Dec 12

vs George Roop · Mar 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Takeya MizugakiMetricReuben Duran

3.37

Strikes / min

3.19

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

2.61

57%

Strike defense

50%

1.46

TDs / 15 min

0.98

70%

Takedown defense

25%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.58

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Takeya Mizugaki(10 fights)Reuben Duran(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.8|Blue -6.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Takeya MizugakiTargetReuben Duran

By target zone

33% acc · 47%

Head

36% acc · 64%

100% acc · 16%

Body

94% acc · 22%

64% acc · 37%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

40% acc · 70%

Distance

40% acc · 73%

83% acc · 12%

Clinch

89% acc · 25%

73% acc · 19%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Takeya Mizugaki rounds

even

Reuben Duran rounds

Round 1Reuben Duran edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Takeya Mizugaki edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control1:42

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control2:33

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 92

Sig Strikes

67 / 143

47%

Sig Str %

46.7%

77 / 133

Total Strikes

105 / 186

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

4:15

Ctrl Time

1:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Reuben Duran	35 / 75	38 / 78	0 / 0
1	Takeya Mizugaki	18 / 41	20 / 43	0 / 0
2	Reuben Duran	13 / 35	29 / 53	0 / 1
2	Takeya Mizugaki	15 / 32	27 / 47	2 / 2
3	Reuben Duran	19 / 33	38 / 55	0 / 1
3	Takeya Mizugaki	10 / 19	30 / 43	2 / 2

Takeya Mizugaki

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Reuben Duran

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4