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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Takeya Mizugaki won · U-DEC R3
Elo1359
Takeya Mizugaki
Elo1353

Takeya MizugakivsNam PhanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot · Friday, December 6, 2013Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

Official fight result

Takeya Mizugaki won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTakeya Mizugaki: Well-roundedvsNam Phan: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Takeya Mizugaki wins(69.2%)

Actual result: Takeya Mizugaki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Takeya Mizugaki at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Takeya Mizugaki
Red Corner
VS
Nam Phan
Blue Corner
-325
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+295
(25%)
1359
Elo
1353
42
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'6"
175.26 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Takeya MizugakiL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Dominick Cruz · Sep 14
L
SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 15
W
vs George Roop · Sep 15
L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 16
L
KOvs Eddie Wineland · Dec 16
latest
Nam PhanL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Leonard Garcia · Oct 11
L
vs Jimy Hettes · Dec 11
W
vs Cole Miller · Aug 12
L
vs Dennis Siver · Dec 12
L
vs Vaughan Lee · Mar 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Takeya MizugakiMetricNam Phan
3.37
Strikes / min
4.52
3.27
Strikes absorbed / min
6.55
57%
Strike defense
59%
1.46
TDs / 15 min
0.18
70%
Takedown defense
60%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.10Δ 2.13 — meaningful gap-2.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1549 vs 1475Strikes46.3 vs 80.5Takedowns1.9 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.14 vs 0.17Form0.8 vs -0.2
Takeya MizugakiNam Phan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Takeya Mizugaki(10 fights)Nam Phan(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +5.9|Blue -5.9
Recent Form
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score
Red -2.4|Blue +2.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -263.0|Blue +263.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Takeya MizugakiTargetNam Phan

By target zone

117
33% acc · 77%
Head
77
30% acc · 77%
34
79% acc · 22%
Body
23
79% acc · 23%
1
100% acc · 1%
Leg
0

By position

142
37% acc · 93%
Distance
100
35% acc · 100%
9
75% acc · 6%
Clinch
0
1
50% acc · 1%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Takeya Mizugaki rounds
0
even
1
Nam Phan rounds
Round 1Takeya Mizugaki edged it
Sig. strikes49
Takedowns2
Control1:14
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Takeya Mizugaki edged it
Sig. strikes56
Takedowns1
Control0:47
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Nam Phan edged it
Sig. strikes47
Takedowns0
Control0:04
53Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
152 / 402
Sig Strikes
100 / 287
37.7%
Sig Str %
33%
155 / 405
Total Strikes
104 / 291
3 / 8
TDs
0 / 0
44.3%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:05
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Nam Phan23 / 7723 / 770 / 00
1Takeya Mizugaki49 / 12949 / 1292 / 20
2Nam Phan24 / 7625 / 770 / 00
2Takeya Mizugaki56 / 12758 / 1291 / 30
3Nam Phan53 / 13456 / 1370 / 00
3Takeya Mizugaki47 / 14648 / 1470 / 30

Takeya Mizugaki

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights14

Nam Phan

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights8