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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Takeya Mizugaki won · U-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1352

Takeya MizugakivsJeff HouglandUFC Prediction Result

UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · Saturday, November 10, 2012Macau, China

Official fight result

Takeya Mizugaki won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTakeya Mizugaki: Well-roundedvsJeff Hougland: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Jeff Hougland wins(72.7%)

Actual result: Takeya Mizugaki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeff Hougland at +390 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Takeya Mizugaki has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Takeya Mizugaki has 70pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Takeya Mizugaki

Red Corner

Jeff Hougland

Blue Corner

-440

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+390

(20%)

1359

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Takeya MizugakiL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Cruz · Sep 14

SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 15

vs George Roop · Sep 15

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 16

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Dec 16

latest

Jeff Hougland

oldest →

vs Donny Walker · Jul 11

vs Yves Jabouin · May 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Takeya MizugakiMetricJeff Hougland

3.37

Strikes / min

1.86

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

57%

Strike defense

47%

1.46

TDs / 15 min

0.86

70%

Takedown defense

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10Δ 1.70 — meaningful gap-1.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Takeya MizugakiJeff Hougland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Takeya Mizugaki(10 fights)Jeff Hougland(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +80.0|Blue -80.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Takeya MizugakiTargetJeff Hougland

By target zone

54% acc · 84%

Head

42% acc · 36%

70% acc · 11%

Body

73% acc · 57%

75% acc · 5%

Leg

50% acc · 7%

By position

38% acc · 16%

Distance

42% acc · 57%

67% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 36%

61% acc · 75%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Takeya Mizugaki rounds

even

Jeff Hougland rounds

Round 1Takeya Mizugaki edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control3:35

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 2Takeya Mizugaki edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control3:37

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Takeya Mizugaki edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control3:53

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 112

Sig Strikes

14 / 25

55%

Sig Str %

47.7%

103 / 164

Total Strikes

73 / 89

4 / 4

TDs

1 / 7

100%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

11:05

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jeff Hougland	9 / 11	23 / 25	0 / 2
1	Takeya Mizugaki	27 / 46	42 / 66	1 / 1
2	Jeff Hougland	5 / 8	24 / 29	0 / 3
2	Takeya Mizugaki	22 / 37	32 / 49	1 / 1
3	Jeff Hougland	0 / 6	26 / 35	1 / 2
3	Takeya Mizugaki	14 / 29	29 / 49	2 / 2

Takeya Mizugaki

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Jeff Hougland

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights3