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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Takeya Mizugaki won · U-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1355

Takeya MizugakivsGeorge RoopUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · Saturday, September 26, 2015Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Takeya Mizugaki won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTakeya Mizugaki: Well-roundedvsGeorge Roop: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Takeya Mizugaki wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Takeya Mizugaki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Takeya Mizugaki at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Takeya Mizugaki enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
George Roop is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Takeya Mizugaki has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Takeya Mizugaki

Red Corner

George Roop

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1359

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

6'1"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Takeya MizugakiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Francisco Rivera · May 14

KOvs Dominick Cruz · Sep 14

SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 15

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 16

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Dec 16

latest

George Roop

oldest →

vs Reuben Duran · Mar 13

KOvs Brian Bowles · May 13

KOvs Francisco Rivera · Nov 13

vs Dustin Kimura · Apr 14

KOvs Rob Font · Jul 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Takeya MizugakiMetricGeorge Roop

3.37

Strikes / min

3.43

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

2.47

57%

Strike defense

60%

1.46

TDs / 15 min

1.05

70%

Takedown defense

59%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Takeya MizugakiGeorge Roop

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Takeya Mizugaki(10 fights)George Roop(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.4|Blue -3.4

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -287.0|Blue +287.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Takeya MizugakiTargetGeorge Roop

By target zone

35% acc · 67%

Head

29% acc · 49%

92% acc · 33%

Body

74% acc · 36%

Leg

78% acc · 15%

By position

41% acc · 60%

Distance

37% acc · 64%

48% acc · 40%

Clinch

55% acc · 36%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Takeya Mizugaki rounds

even

George Roop rounds

Round 1Takeya Mizugaki edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control1:36

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:34Control

Round 2Takeya Mizugaki edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:34

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:43Control

Round 3Takeya Mizugaki edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:50

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 160

Sig Strikes

47 / 112

43.3%

Sig Str %

42.3%

88 / 180

Total Strikes

97 / 165

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:00

Ctrl Time

5:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	George Roop	18 / 48	38 / 69	0 / 0
1	Takeya Mizugaki	28 / 57	37 / 68	0 / 0
2	George Roop	18 / 39	28 / 51	0 / 0
2	Takeya Mizugaki	24 / 57	27 / 60	0 / 0
3	George Roop	11 / 25	31 / 45	0 / 2
3	Takeya Mizugaki	18 / 46	24 / 52	0 / 1

Takeya Mizugaki

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

George Roop

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10