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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Takeya Mizugaki won · U-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1358

Takeya MizugakivsFrancisco RiveraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw · Saturday, May 24, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Takeya Mizugaki won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTakeya Mizugaki: Well-roundedvsFrancisco Rivera: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Takeya Mizugaki wins(67.3%)

Actual result: Takeya Mizugaki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Takeya Mizugaki at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francisco Rivera enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Francisco Rivera is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Takeya Mizugaki has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Francisco Rivera has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Takeya Mizugaki

Red Corner

Francisco Rivera

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1359

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Takeya MizugakiL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Cruz · Sep 14

SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 15

vs George Roop · Sep 15

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 16

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Dec 16

latest

Francisco RiveraL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 14

KOvs Alex Caceres · Jun 15

SUBvs John Lineker · Sep 15

vs Brad Pickett · Feb 16

vs Erik Perez · Jul 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Takeya MizugakiMetricFrancisco Rivera

3.37

Strikes / min

4.07

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

3.16

57%

Strike defense

68%

1.46

TDs / 15 min

1.01

70%

Takedown defense

68%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Takeya MizugakiFrancisco Rivera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Takeya Mizugaki(10 fights)Francisco Rivera(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -30.0|Blue +30.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Takeya MizugakiTargetFrancisco Rivera

By target zone

25% acc · 94%

Head

33% acc · 76%

100% acc · 3%

Body

86% acc · 15%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

18% acc · 51%

Distance

36% acc · 83%

0% acc

Clinch

83% acc · 12%

53% acc · 49%

Ground

67% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Takeya Mizugaki rounds

even

Francisco Rivera rounds

Round 1Takeya Mizugaki edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control2:19

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

0:39Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Takeya Mizugaki edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control3:14

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control2:35

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 135

Sig Strikes

41 / 104

25%

Sig Str %

40.3%

67 / 179

Total Strikes

61 / 124

0 / 3

TDs

3 / 4

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

8:08

Ctrl Time

0:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Francisco Rivera	14 / 25	25 / 36	3 / 4	0
1	Takeya Mizugaki	16 / 48	19 / 52	0 / 1	0
2	Francisco Rivera	8 / 26	11 / 29	0 / 0	1
2	Takeya Mizugaki	5 / 24	14 / 34	0 / 2	0
3	Francisco Rivera	19 / 53	25 / 59	0 / 0	0
3	Takeya Mizugaki	14 / 63	34 / 93	0 / 0	0

Takeya Mizugaki

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Francisco Rivera

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10