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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Takeya Mizugaki won · S-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1491

Takeya MizugakivsErik PerezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2 · Wednesday, August 28, 2013Indianapolis, Indiana, USA

Official fight result

Takeya Mizugaki won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTakeya Mizugaki: Well-roundedvsErik Perez: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Takeya Mizugaki wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Takeya Mizugaki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Takeya Mizugaki at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Erik Perez enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Takeya Mizugaki

Red Corner

Erik Perez

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1359

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Takeya MizugakiL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Cruz · Sep 14

SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 15

vs George Roop · Sep 15

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 16

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Dec 16

latest

Erik PerezW3 streak

oldest →

vs Edwin Figueroa · Nov 13

SUBvs Bryan Caraway · Jun 14

vs Taylor Lapilus · Nov 15

vs Francisco Rivera · Jul 16

vs Felipe Arantes · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Takeya MizugakiMetricErik Perez

3.37

Strikes / min

3.16

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

2.09

57%

Strike defense

66%

1.46

TDs / 15 min

3.16

70%

Takedown defense

69%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking+1.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Takeya MizugakiErik Perez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Takeya Mizugaki(10 fights)Erik Perez(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -131.9|Blue +131.9

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Takeya MizugakiTargetErik Perez

By target zone

33% acc · 82%

Head

21% acc · 46%

75% acc · 15%

Body

62% acc · 49%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

67% acc · 5%

By position

34% acc · 77%

Distance

25% acc · 65%

46% acc · 15%

Clinch

75% acc · 32%

75% acc · 8%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Takeya Mizugaki rounds

even

Erik Perez rounds

Round 1Erik Perez edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:45

16Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:07Control

Round 2Takeya Mizugaki edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:56

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:25Control

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 106

Sig Strikes

37 / 113

36%

Sig Str %

34.3%

59 / 126

Total Strikes

49 / 127

2 / 5

TDs

5 / 11

33.3%

TD %

53.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:41

Ctrl Time

4:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Erik Perez	16 / 35	21 / 41	3 / 5	0
1	Takeya Mizugaki	11 / 33	21 / 43	1 / 2	0
2	Erik Perez	11 / 51	12 / 53	0 / 4	0
2	Takeya Mizugaki	18 / 45	19 / 46	0 / 1	0
3	Erik Perez	10 / 27	16 / 33	2 / 2	0
3	Takeya Mizugaki	10 / 28	19 / 37	1 / 2	1

Takeya Mizugaki

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Erik Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights9