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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Takeya Mizugaki won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1359

Elo1351

Takeya MizugakivsCole EscovedoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · Saturday, September 24, 2011Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Takeya Mizugaki won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:30

Model Prediction: Takeya Mizugaki wins(60.5%)

Actual result: Takeya Mizugaki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Takeya Mizugaki at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Takeya Mizugaki has 57pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Takeya Mizugaki

Red Corner

Cole Escovedo

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1359

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Takeya MizugakiL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Cruz · Sep 14

SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 15

vs George Roop · Sep 15

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 16

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Dec 16

latest

Cole EscovedoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Renan Barao · May 11

vs Alex Caceres · Nov 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Takeya MizugakiMetricCole Escovedo

3.37

Strikes / min

1.77

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

4.32

57%

Strike defense

49%

1.46

TDs / 15 min

0.43

70%

Takedown defense

13%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10Δ 2.65 — meaningful gap-2.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Takeya MizugakiCole Escovedo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Takeya Mizugaki(10 fights)Cole Escovedo(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.6|Blue -7.6

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Takeya MizugakiTargetCole Escovedo

By target zone

48% acc · 71%

Head

34% acc · 34%

72% acc · 19%

Body

84% acc · 55%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

53% acc · 66%

Distance

48% acc · 52%

60% acc · 30%

Clinch

70% acc · 48%

38% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Takeya Mizugaki rounds

even

Cole Escovedo rounds

Round 1Takeya Mizugaki edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control1:51

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 2Takeya Mizugaki edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:43

Knockdowns2

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 129

Sig Strikes

29 / 51

54%

Sig Str %

55.5%

85 / 146

Total Strikes

33 / 56

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:34

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cole Escovedo	20 / 27	23 / 30	0 / 0
1	Takeya Mizugaki	27 / 49	35 / 58	1 / 1
2	Cole Escovedo	9 / 24	10 / 26	0 / 0
2	Takeya Mizugaki	43 / 80	50 / 88	0 / 0

Takeya Mizugaki

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Cole Escovedo

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3