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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Chris Cariaso won · U-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1355

Takeya MizugakivsChris CariasoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson · Saturday, February 25, 2012Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Chris Cariaso won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTakeya Mizugaki: Well-roundedvsChris Cariaso: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Chris Cariaso wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Chris Cariaso wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Cariaso at +260 American odds

+$260 profit

$360 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Cariaso enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Chris Cariaso (53.5%).
Takeya Mizugaki has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Takeya Mizugaki

Red Corner

Chris Cariaso

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+260

(28%)

1359

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'3"

175.26 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Takeya MizugakiL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Cruz · Sep 14

SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 15

vs George Roop · Sep 15

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 16

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Dec 16

latest

Chris CariasoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Danny Martinez · Feb 14

vs Louis Smolka · May 14

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Sep 14

vs Henry Cejudo · Mar 15

vs Sergio Pettis · Oct 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Takeya MizugakiMetricChris Cariaso

3.37

Strikes / min

3.35

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

2.23

57%

Strike defense

61%

1.46

TDs / 15 min

1.11

70%

Takedown defense

57%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+1.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Takeya MizugakiChris Cariaso

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Takeya Mizugaki(10 fights)Chris Cariaso(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.3|Blue -3.3

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Takeya MizugakiTargetChris Cariaso

By target zone

27% acc · 71%

Head

36% acc · 57%

75% acc · 21%

Body

83% acc · 41%

33% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

12% acc · 21%

Distance

29% acc · 38%

67% acc · 29%

Clinch

82% acc · 62%

56% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Takeya Mizugaki rounds

even

Chris Cariaso rounds

Round 1Takeya Mizugaki edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control2:43

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:19

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control3:01

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 88

Sig Strikes

37 / 77

32.3%

Sig Str %

50.3%

70 / 141

Total Strikes

75 / 119

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:03

Ctrl Time

1:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Cariaso	8 / 29	25 / 46	0 / 0
1	Takeya Mizugaki	9 / 34	23 / 54	1 / 2
2	Chris Cariaso	15 / 29	22 / 36	0 / 0
2	Takeya Mizugaki	8 / 30	23 / 47	1 / 2
3	Chris Cariaso	14 / 19	28 / 37	0 / 1
3	Takeya Mizugaki	11 / 24	24 / 40	0 / 0

Takeya Mizugaki

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Chris Cariaso

StanceSouthpaw

Height63.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights13