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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Takeya Mizugaki won · S-DEC R3

Elo1359

Elo1369

Takeya MizugakivsBryan CarawayUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann · Saturday, March 2, 2013Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Takeya Mizugaki won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTakeya Mizugaki: Well-roundedvsBryan Caraway: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Takeya Mizugaki wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Takeya Mizugaki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Takeya Mizugaki at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Takeya Mizugaki

Red Corner

Bryan Caraway

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1359

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Takeya MizugakiL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Cruz · Sep 14

SUBvs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 15

vs George Roop · Sep 15

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 16

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Dec 16

latest

Bryan CarawayL2 streak

oldest →

vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 14

vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 15

vs Aljamain Sterling · May 16

vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18

KOvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Takeya MizugakiMetricBryan Caraway

3.37

Strikes / min

2.53

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

3.61

57%

Strike defense

54%

1.46

TDs / 15 min

2.57

70%

Takedown defense

80%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap-1.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Takeya MizugakiBryan Caraway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Takeya Mizugaki(10 fights)Bryan Caraway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.3|Blue +10.3

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Takeya MizugakiTargetBryan Caraway

By target zone

46% acc · 63%

Head

38% acc · 84%

95% acc · 27%

Body

75% acc · 8%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

59% acc · 87%

Distance

41% acc · 89%

50% acc · 13%

Clinch

43% acc · 8%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Takeya Mizugaki rounds

even

Bryan Caraway rounds

Round 1Takeya Mizugaki edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:12

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:30Control

Round 2Bryan Caraway edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:54Control

Round 3Takeya Mizugaki edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 117

Sig Strikes

37 / 89

57%

Sig Str %

40%

117 / 168

Total Strikes

69 / 125

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 12

TD %

17.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

5:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bryan Caraway	13 / 32	27 / 49	1 / 5	0
1	Takeya Mizugaki	25 / 40	40 / 55	0 / 1	0
2	Bryan Caraway	7 / 23	17 / 34	1 / 3	1
2	Takeya Mizugaki	13 / 23	28 / 38	0 / 0	0
3	Bryan Caraway	17 / 34	25 / 42	0 / 4	0
3	Takeya Mizugaki	29 / 54	49 / 75	0 / 0	0

Takeya Mizugaki

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Bryan Caraway

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10