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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Aljamain Sterling won · SUB R3

Elo1359

Elo1524

Takeya MizugakivsAljamain SterlingUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · Saturday, April 18, 2015Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Aljamain Sterling won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:11

Style matchupTakeya Mizugaki: Well-roundedvsAljamain Sterling: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Aljamain Sterling wins(75.0%)

Actual result: Aljamain Sterling wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aljamain Sterling at -345 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Takeya Mizugaki has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Takeya Mizugaki

Red Corner

Aljamain Sterling

Blue Corner

+285

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-345

(78%)

1359

Elo

1524

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Takeya MizugakiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Francisco Rivera · May 14

KOvs Dominick Cruz · Sep 14

vs George Roop · Sep 15

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 16

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Dec 16

latest

Aljamain SterlingW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23

vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24

vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24

vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25

DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Takeya MizugakiMetricAljamain Sterling

3.37

Strikes / min

4.26

3.27

Strikes absorbed / min

2.15

57%

Strike defense

59%

1.46

TDs / 15 min

2.54

70%

Takedown defense

44%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap+2.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Takeya MizugakiAljamain Sterling

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Takeya Mizugaki(10 fights)Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -165.5|Blue +165.5

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -73.0|Blue +73.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Takeya MizugakiTargetAljamain Sterling

By target zone

20% acc · 46%

Head

29% acc · 25%

60% acc · 46%

Body

100% acc · 38%

50% acc · 8%

Leg

86% acc · 38%

By position

21% acc · 54%

Distance

41% acc · 41%

75% acc · 46%

Clinch

86% acc · 59%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Takeya Mizugaki rounds

even

Aljamain Sterling rounds

Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:14

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:09Control

Round 2Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:14Control

Round 3Aljamain Sterling edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:17

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 42

Sig Strikes

32 / 54

32%

Sig Str %

48.3%

19 / 49

Total Strikes

60 / 84

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 15

TD %

26%

Sub Att

Rev

0:31

Ctrl Time

7:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Aljamain Sterling	23 / 30	28 / 35	0 / 6	0
1	Takeya Mizugaki	7 / 21	10 / 24	0 / 1	0
2	Aljamain Sterling	7 / 17	27 / 39	2 / 7	0
2	Takeya Mizugaki	3 / 14	5 / 17	0 / 0	0
3	Aljamain Sterling	2 / 7	5 / 10	1 / 2	1
3	Takeya Mizugaki	3 / 7	4 / 8	0 / 0	0

Takeya Mizugaki

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Aljamain Sterling

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights23