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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Takashi Sato won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1459
Elo1432
Jason Witt

Takashi SatovsJason WittUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · Saturday, June 27, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Takashi Sato won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:48

Model Prediction: Takashi Sato wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Takashi Sato wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Takashi Sato at -278 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Takashi Sato enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Takashi Sato is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Jason Witt has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Jason Witt threatens submissions; Takashi Sato has lost 40% of fights by sub.
  • Jason Witt has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Takashi Sato (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Takashi Sato
Red Corner
VS
Jason Witt
Blue Corner
-278
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+215
(32%)
1459
Elo
1432
36
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Takashi SatoL5 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Belal Muhammad · Sep 19
L
SUBvs Miguel Baeza · Nov 20
L
vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 22
L
KOvs Bryan Battle · Aug 22
L
vs Themba Gorimbo · May 23
latest
Jason WittL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Cole Williams · Oct 20
L
KOvs Matthew Semelsberger · Mar 21
W
vs Bryan Barberena · Jul 21
L
KOvs Phil Rowe · Feb 22
L
KOvs Josh Quinlan · Aug 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Takashi SatoMetricJason Witt
2.21
Strikes / min
2.15
3.73
Strikes absorbed / min
2.54
44%
Strike defense
52%
0.76
TDs / 15 min
6.90
60%
Takedown defense
100%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.52Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1500Strikes3.1 vs 0.0Takedowns0.8 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.2 vs 0.0
Takashi SatoJason Witt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Takashi Sato(7 fights)Jason Witt(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +26.9|Blue -26.9
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Takashi SatoTargetJason Witt

By target zone

18
86% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
1
50% acc · 50%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 50%

By position

3
60% acc · 17%
Distance
2
40% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
15
94% acc · 83%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Takashi Sato rounds
0
even
0
Jason Witt rounds
Round 1Takashi Sato edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:11
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
18 / 21
Sig Strikes
2 / 5
85%
Sig Str %
40%
18 / 21
Total Strikes
2 / 5
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:11
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jason Witt2 / 52 / 50 / 10
1Takashi Sato18 / 2118 / 210 / 00

Takashi Sato

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7

Jason Witt

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights6