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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jon Tuck won · SUB R1
Elo1362
Takanori Gomi
Elo1491

Takanori GomivsJon TuckUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · Saturday, June 17, 2017Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Jon Tuck won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:12

Model Prediction: Jon Tuck wins(58.4%)

Actual result: Jon Tuck wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Tuck at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Takanori Gomi enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Jon Tuck enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Jon Tuck threatens submissions; Takanori Gomi has lost 44% of fights by sub.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Takanori Gomi (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Takanori Gomi
Red Corner
VS
Jon Tuck
Blue Corner
+325
(24%)
Vegas Odds
-360
(78%)
1362
Elo
1491
47
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Takanori GomiL4 streak
oldest →
W
vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Apr 14
L
KOvs Myles Jury · Sep 14
L
KOvs Joe Lauzon · Jul 15
L
KOvs Jim Miller · Jul 16
L
KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Sep 17
latest
Jon TuckL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Kevin Lee · Sep 14
W
SUBvs Tae Hyun Bang · May 15
L
vs Josh Emmett · May 16
L
vs Damien Brown · Nov 16
L
vs Drew Dober · Aug 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Takanori GomiMetricJon Tuck
3.81
Strikes / min
3.00
3.52
Strikes absorbed / min
3.74
60%
Strike defense
60%
1.23
TDs / 15 min
0.42
63%
Takedown defense
50%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.29Δ 1.03 — meaningful gap-0.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1459 vs 1480Strikes33.2 vs 40.6Takedowns0.1 vs 0.4Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.71Form-0.8 vs -0.7
Takanori GomiJon Tuck

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Takanori Gomi(10 fights)Jon Tuck(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -129.3|Blue +129.3
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +140.0|Blue -140.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Takanori GomiTargetJon Tuck

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
6
50% acc · 86%
0
0% acc
Body
1
100% acc · 14%
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
3
43% acc · 43%
0
Clinch
1
50% acc · 14%
0
Ground
3
75% acc · 43%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Takanori Gomi rounds
0
even
1
Jon Tuck rounds
Round 1Jon Tuck edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:38Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 5
Sig Strikes
7 / 13
0%
Sig Str %
53%
0 / 5
Total Strikes
7 / 13
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:38

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jon Tuck7 / 137 / 130 / 01
1Takanori Gomi0 / 50 / 50 / 00

Takanori Gomi

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights13

Jon Tuck

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights9