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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Taiyilake Nueraji won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1515

Elo1467

Taiyilake NuerajivsKiefer CrosbieUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Saturday, August 23, 2025Shanghai, Hebei, China

Official fight result

Taiyilake Nueraji won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:33

Style matchupTaiyilake Nueraji: Pressure fightervsKiefer Crosbie: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Taiyilake Nueraji wins(86.8%)

Actual result: Taiyilake Nueraji wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Taiyilake Nueraji at -510 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Taiyilake Nueraji has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Taiyilake Nueraji has 60pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kiefer Crosbie (54.1%).
Taiyilake Nueraji has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Taiyilake Nueraji

Red Corner

Kiefer Crosbie

Blue Corner

-510

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+390

(20%)

1515

Elo

1467

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

6'2"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Taiyilake NuerajiNo prior UFC fights on record.

Kiefer CrosbieL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Jousset · Sep 23

SUBvs Sam Patterson · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Taiyilake NuerajiMetricKiefer Crosbie

9.82

Strikes / min

4.46

5.01

Strikes absorbed / min

5.80

58%

Strike defense

46%

1.47

TDs / 15 min

0.00

100%

Takedown defense

40%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+4.81Δ 6.15 — meaningful gap-1.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Taiyilake NuerajiKiefer Crosbie

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Taiyilake Nueraji(1 fights)Kiefer Crosbie(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +47.8|Blue -47.8

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.4|Blue -49.4

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Taiyilake NuerajiTargetKiefer Crosbie

By target zone

71% acc · 93%

Head

100% acc · 50%

67% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 50%

Leg

0% acc

By position

67% acc · 7%

Distance

67% acc · 100%

Clinch

71% acc · 93%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Taiyilake Nueraji rounds

even

Kiefer Crosbie rounds

Round 1Taiyilake Nueraji edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control3:11

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 38

Sig Strikes

2 / 3

71%

Sig Str %

66%

31 / 42

Total Strikes

11 / 12

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

33%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:11

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kiefer Crosbie	2 / 3	11 / 12	0 / 1	0
1	Taiyilake Nueraji	27 / 38	31 / 42	1 / 3	0

Taiyilake Nueraji

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights1

Kiefer Crosbie

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3