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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tallison Teixeira won · U-DEC R3

Elo1453

Elo1490

Tai TuivasavsTallison TeixeiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · Saturday, January 31, 2026Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Tallison Teixeira won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTai Tuivasa: StrikervsTallison Teixeira: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Tallison Teixeira wins(89.5%)

Actual result: Tallison Teixeira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tallison Teixeira at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tai Tuivasa is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Tallison Teixeira has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Tai Tuivasa has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Tai Tuivasa (53.5%).
Tallison Teixeira has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tai Tuivasa

Red Corner

Tallison Teixeira

Blue Corner

+245

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-300

(75%)

1453

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'7"

190.5 cm

Reach

210.82 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tai TuivasaL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Dec 22

SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24

DECvs Louie Sutherland · May 26

latest

Tallison TeixeiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Tafa · Feb 25

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jul 25

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tai TuivasaMetricTallison Teixeira

3.37

Strikes / min

5.02

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.86

42%

Strike defense

42%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.48

58%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.24Δ 2.40 — meaningful gap+1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tai TuivasaTallison Teixeira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)Tallison Teixeira(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -37.7|Blue +37.7

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +329.0|Blue -329.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tai TuivasaTargetTallison Teixeira

By target zone

58% acc · 50%

Head

65% acc · 76%

100% acc · 24%

Body

91% acc · 20%

92% acc · 26%

Leg

67% acc · 4%

By position

77% acc · 64%

Distance

55% acc · 51%

65% acc · 26%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

67% acc · 10%

Ground

91% acc · 41%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tai Tuivasa rounds

even

Tallison Teixeira rounds

Round 1Tallison Teixeira edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:42

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:57Control

Round 2Tallison Teixeira edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:06

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:01Control

Round 3Tai Tuivasa edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control3:10

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 58

Sig Strikes

51 / 74

65.7%

Sig Str %

68%

56 / 74

Total Strikes

117 / 144

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 9

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:58

Ctrl Time

7:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tallison Teixeira	19 / 23	51 / 58	2 / 4
1	Tai Tuivasa	2 / 4	3 / 5	0 / 0
2	Tallison Teixeira	21 / 31	43 / 54	1 / 1
2	Tai Tuivasa	13 / 18	17 / 23	0 / 0
3	Tallison Teixeira	11 / 20	23 / 32	0 / 4
3	Tai Tuivasa	27 / 36	36 / 46	0 / 0

Tai Tuivasa

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Tallison Teixeira

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach83.0"

Fights4