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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Sergei Pavlovich won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1453
Tai Tuivasa
Elo1538
Sergei Pavlovich

Tai TuivasavsSergei PavlovichUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · Saturday, December 3, 2022Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Sergei Pavlovich won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:54

Style matchupTai Tuivasa: StrikervsSergei Pavlovich: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich wins(83.2%)

Actual result: Sergei Pavlovich wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergei Pavlovich at -180 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Sergei Pavlovich enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Tai Tuivasa is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Sergei Pavlovich has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Sergei Pavlovich has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Sergei Pavlovich has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Sergei Pavlovich has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tai Tuivasa
Red Corner
VS
Sergei Pavlovich
Blue Corner
+155
(39%)
Vegas Odds
-180
(64%)
1453
Elo
1538
33
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
213.36 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tai TuivasaL5 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23
L
SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24
L
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24
L
vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26
L
DECvs Louie Sutherland · May 26
latest
Sergei PavlovichW3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Nov 23
L
vs Alexander Volkov · Jun 24
W
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Feb 25
W
vs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Aug 25
W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tai TuivasaMetricSergei Pavlovich
3.37
Strikes / min
4.43
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
3.62
42%
Strike defense
55%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.48
58%
Takedown defense
75%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.24Δ 2.05 — meaningful gap+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1554 vs 1546Strikes3.8 vs 5.9Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 1.0
Tai TuivasaSergei Pavlovich

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14401468149515231550← oldermost recent →
Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)Sergei Pavlovich(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -85.7|Blue +85.7
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -35.0|Blue +35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tai TuivasaTargetSergei Pavlovich

By target zone

2
22% acc · 100%
Head
23
53% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0% acc
0
0% acc
Leg
0

By position

2
20% acc · 100%
Distance
16
50% acc · 70%
0
Clinch
1
25% acc · 4%
0
Ground
6
75% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Tai Tuivasa rounds
0
even
1
Sergei Pavlovich rounds
Round 1Sergei Pavlovich edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
2Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
2
2 / 10
Sig Strikes
23 / 44
20%
Sig Str %
52%
2 / 10
Total Strikes
23 / 44
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:09

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Sergei Pavlovich23 / 4423 / 440 / 00
1Tai Tuivasa2 / 102 / 100 / 00

Tai Tuivasa

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17

Sergei Pavlovich

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach84.0"
Fights12