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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Marcin Tybura won · SUB R1

Elo1453

Elo1495

Tai TuivasavsMarcin TyburaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Saturday, March 16, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Marcin Tybura won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:08

Style matchupTai Tuivasa: StrikervsMarcin Tybura: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Marcin Tybura wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Marcin Tybura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Tybura at -102 American odds

+$98 profit

$198 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tai Tuivasa is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Marcin Tybura has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Marcin Tybura has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Tai Tuivasa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tai Tuivasa

Red Corner

Marcin Tybura

Blue Corner

-118

(54%)

Vegas Odds

-102

(50%)

1453

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tai TuivasaL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Dec 22

SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24

vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26

DECvs Louie Sutherland · May 26

latest

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tai TuivasaMetricMarcin Tybura

3.37

Strikes / min

3.56

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

42%

Strike defense

55%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.30

58%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.24Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap+0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tai TuivasaMarcin Tybura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)Marcin Tybura(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -42.8|Blue +42.8

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tai TuivasaTargetMarcin Tybura

By target zone

53% acc · 60%

Head

68% acc · 85%

50% acc · 7%

Body

57% acc · 15%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

By position

47% acc · 53%

Distance

40% acc · 30%

100% acc · 47%

Clinch

Ground

90% acc · 70%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tai Tuivasa rounds

even

Marcin Tybura rounds

Round 1Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:48Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 24

Sig Strikes

27 / 41

62%

Sig Str %

65%

18 / 27

Total Strikes

73 / 96

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcin Tybura	27 / 41	73 / 96	1 / 4	1
1	Tai Tuivasa	15 / 24	18 / 27	0 / 0	0

Tai Tuivasa

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24