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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Louie Sutherland won · Decision R3
Elo1453
Tai Tuivasa
Elo1482
Louie Sutherland editorial illustration

Tai TuivasavsLouie SutherlandUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · Saturday, May 2, 2026Perth, Australia

Official fight result

Louie Sutherland won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTai Tuivasa: StrikervsLouie Sutherland: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Tai Tuivasa wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Louie Sutherland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Tai Tuivasa is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Louie Sutherland has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Tai Tuivasa has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Tai Tuivasa has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Tai Tuivasa
Red Corner
VS
Louie Sutherland
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1453
Elo
1482
33
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tai TuivasaL5 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Dec 22
L
SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23
L
SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24
L
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24
L
vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26
latest
Louie SutherlandL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Valter Walker · Oct 25
L
KOvs Brando Pericic · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tai TuivasaMetricLouie Sutherland
3.37
Strikes / min
1.81
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
2.03
42%
Strike defense
30%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
4.95
58%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.24Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap-0.22
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14401460148015001520← oldermost recent →
Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)Louie Sutherland(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -29.0|Blue +29.0
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Layoff
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Tai Tuivasa

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17

Louie Sutherland

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights2