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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jairzinho Rozenstruik won · S-DEC R3

Elo1453

Elo1502

Tai TuivasavsJairzinho RozenstruikUFC Prediction Result

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Saturday, August 17, 2024Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Jairzinho Rozenstruik won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTai Tuivasa: StrikervsJairzinho Rozenstruik: Striker

Two strikers — expect distance work and a kickboxing-style battle.

Model Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Jairzinho Rozenstruik wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jairzinho Rozenstruik at -260 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Tai Tuivasa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tai Tuivasa

Red Corner

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1453

Elo

1502

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'2"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tai TuivasaL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Dec 22

SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24

vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26

DECvs Louie Sutherland · May 26

latest

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Jun 22

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Dec 22

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · May 23

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Mar 24

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tai TuivasaMetricJairzinho Rozenstruik

3.37

Strikes / min

3.48

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

2.63

42%

Strike defense

52%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

58%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.24Δ 2.09 — meaningful gap+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tai TuivasaJairzinho Rozenstruik

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)Jairzinho Rozenstruik(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tai TuivasaTargetJairzinho Rozenstruik

By target zone

21% acc · 51%

Head

40% acc · 64%

35% acc · 16%

Body

75% acc · 13%

71% acc · 32%

Leg

95% acc · 23%

By position

30% acc · 100%

Distance

49% acc · 95%

0% acc

Clinch

71% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tai Tuivasa rounds

even

Jairzinho Rozenstruik rounds

Round 1Jairzinho Rozenstruik edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jairzinho Rozenstruik edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:01

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jairzinho Rozenstruik edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 126

Sig Strikes

91 / 184

29%

Sig Str %

48%

37 / 126

Total Strikes

92 / 185

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	19 / 48	19 / 48	0 / 0
1	Tai Tuivasa	9 / 38	9 / 38	0 / 0
2	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	36 / 69	37 / 70	0 / 0
2	Tai Tuivasa	13 / 38	13 / 38	0 / 0
3	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	36 / 67	36 / 67	0 / 0
3	Tai Tuivasa	15 / 50	15 / 50	0 / 0

Tai Tuivasa

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15