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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Tai Tuivasa won · KO/TKO
Elo1453
Tai Tuivasa
Elo1431
Harry Hunsucker

Tai TuivasavsHarry HunsuckerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · Saturday, March 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tai Tuivasa won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Tai Tuivasa wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Tai Tuivasa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tai Tuivasa at -430 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Tai Tuivasa is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Harry Hunsucker has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Tai Tuivasa has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Tai Tuivasa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tai Tuivasa
Red Corner
VS
Harry Hunsucker
Blue Corner
-430
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+345
(22%)
1453
Elo
1431
33
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tai TuivasaL5 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23
L
SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24
L
vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24
L
vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26
L
DECvs Louie Sutherland · May 26
latest
Harry HunsuckerL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Justin Tafa · Dec 21
L
KOvs Tyson Pedro · Aug 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tai TuivasaMetricHarry Hunsucker
3.37
Strikes / min
3.54
4.61
Strikes absorbed / min
6.53
42%
Strike defense
42%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.00
58%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
2.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.24Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap-2.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1511 vs 1500Strikes4.4 vs 4.3Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.2 vs 0.0
Tai TuivasaHarry Hunsucker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14401460148015001520← oldermost recent →
Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)Harry Hunsucker(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +21.2|Blue -21.2
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -48.6|Blue +48.6
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tai TuivasaTargetHarry Hunsucker

By target zone

10
71% acc · 71%
Head
1
20% acc · 50%
0
Body
0
4
100% acc · 29%
Leg
1
100% acc · 50%

By position

9
90% acc · 64%
Distance
2
33% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
5
63% acc · 36%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Tai Tuivasa rounds
0
even
0
Harry Hunsucker rounds
Round 1Tai Tuivasa edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:10
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
14 / 18
Sig Strikes
2 / 6
77%
Sig Str %
33%
14 / 18
Total Strikes
2 / 6
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:10
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Harry Hunsucker2 / 62 / 60 / 00
1Tai Tuivasa14 / 1814 / 180 / 00

Tai Tuivasa

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights17

Harry Hunsucker

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3