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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tai Tuivasa won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1453

Elo1419

Tai TuivasavsGreg HardyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Saturday, July 10, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tai Tuivasa won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:07

Style matchupTai Tuivasa: StrikervsGreg Hardy: Striker

Two strikers — expect distance work and a kickboxing-style battle.

Model Prediction: Tai Tuivasa wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Tai Tuivasa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tai Tuivasa at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tai Tuivasa is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Greg Hardy has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Greg Hardy has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Tai Tuivasa (53.5%).
Greg Hardy has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tai Tuivasa

Red Corner

Greg Hardy

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1453

Elo

1419

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'5"

190.5 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tai TuivasaL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24

vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26

DECvs Louie Sutherland · May 26

latest

Greg HardyL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Alekander Volkov · Nov 19

vs Yorgan De Castro · May 20

KOvs Maurice Greene · Oct 20

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Dec 20

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Mar 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tai TuivasaMetricGreg Hardy

3.37

Strikes / min

4.79

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

42%

Strike defense

55%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.20

58%

Takedown defense

64%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.24Δ 2.72 — meaningful gap+1.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tai TuivasaGreg Hardy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)Greg Hardy(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +33.2|Blue -33.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tai TuivasaTargetGreg Hardy

By target zone

33% acc · 45%

Head

36% acc · 83%

0% acc

Body

86% acc · 55%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

45% acc · 82%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

Clinch

67% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tai Tuivasa rounds

even

Greg Hardy rounds

Round 1Tai Tuivasa edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 23

Sig Strikes

6 / 15

47%

Sig Str %

40%

11 / 23

Total Strikes

6 / 15

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Greg Hardy	6 / 15	6 / 15	0 / 0	0
1	Tai Tuivasa	11 / 23	11 / 23	0 / 0	0

Tai Tuivasa

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Greg Hardy

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights9