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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tai Tuivasa won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1453

Elo1491

Tai TuivasavsCyril AskerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · Saturday, February 10, 2018Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Tai Tuivasa won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:18

Style matchupTai Tuivasa: StrikervsCyril Asker: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Tai Tuivasa wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Tai Tuivasa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tai Tuivasa at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tai Tuivasa is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Cyril Asker has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Cyril Asker threatens submissions; Tai Tuivasa has lost 30% of fights by sub.
Cyril Asker has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Tai Tuivasa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tai Tuivasa

Red Corner

Cyril Asker

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1453

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tai TuivasaL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24

vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26

DECvs Louie Sutherland · May 26

latest

Cyril Asker

oldest →

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Apr 16

KOvs Dmitrii Smoliakov · Jan 17

KOvs Walt Harris · Jun 17

SUBvs Hu Yaozong · Nov 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tai TuivasaMetricCyril Asker

3.37

Strikes / min

3.35

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

5.82

42%

Strike defense

35%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

4.41

58%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.24Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap-2.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tai TuivasaCyril Asker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)Cyril Asker(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -38.3|Blue +38.3

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tai TuivasaTargetCyril Asker

By target zone

70% acc · 79%

Head

20% acc · 67%

100% acc · 21%

Body

100% acc · 33%

Leg

By position

70% acc · 68%

Distance

13% acc · 33%

86% acc · 32%

Clinch

67% acc · 67%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tai Tuivasa rounds

even

Cyril Asker rounds

Round 1Tai Tuivasa edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:24

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 51

Sig Strikes

3 / 11

74%

Sig Str %

27%

39 / 52

Total Strikes

3 / 11

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cyril Asker	3 / 11	3 / 11	0 / 0	0
1	Tai Tuivasa	38 / 51	39 / 52	0 / 0	0

Tai Tuivasa

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Cyril Asker

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5