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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Blagoy Ivanov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1453

Elo1467

Tai TuivasavsBlagoy IvanovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · Saturday, June 8, 2019Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Blagoy Ivanov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTai Tuivasa: StrikervsBlagoy Ivanov: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Blagoy Ivanov wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Blagoy Ivanov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Blagoy Ivanov at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Blagoy Ivanov has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Tai Tuivasa

Red Corner

Blagoy Ivanov

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1453

Elo

1467

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tai TuivasaL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24

vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26

DECvs Louie Sutherland · May 26

latest

Blagoy IvanovL2 streak

oldest →

vs Derrick Lewis · Nov 19

vs Augusto Sakai · May 20

vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · May 22

vs Marcin Tybura · Feb 23

vs Alexandr Romanov · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tai TuivasaMetricBlagoy Ivanov

3.37

Strikes / min

3.25

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

4.20

42%

Strike defense

53%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.69

58%

Takedown defense

61%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.24evenly matched on net striking-0.95

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tai TuivasaBlagoy Ivanov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)Blagoy Ivanov(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.9|Blue +13.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tai TuivasaTargetBlagoy Ivanov

By target zone

34% acc · 61%

Head

57% acc · 89%

86% acc · 9%

Body

88% acc · 10%

83% acc · 30%

Leg

100% acc · 1%

By position

40% acc · 78%

Distance

56% acc · 85%

78% acc · 22%

Clinch

83% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tai Tuivasa rounds

even

Blagoy Ivanov rounds

Round 1Blagoy Ivanov edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:48

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Blagoy Ivanov edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:24

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Blagoy Ivanov edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:26

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 144

Sig Strikes

73 / 123

43.7%

Sig Str %

59.7%

66 / 146

Total Strikes

81 / 131

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 2

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:38

Ctrl Time

2:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Blagoy Ivanov	22 / 34	23 / 35	0 / 0
1	Tai Tuivasa	14 / 37	15 / 38	0 / 0
2	Blagoy Ivanov	30 / 54	30 / 54	1 / 1
2	Tai Tuivasa	27 / 62	27 / 62	0 / 0
3	Blagoy Ivanov	21 / 35	28 / 42	1 / 1
3	Tai Tuivasa	23 / 45	24 / 46	0 / 0

Tai Tuivasa

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Blagoy Ivanov

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8