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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Volkov won · SUB R2

Elo1453

Elo1535

Tai TuivasavsAlexander VolkovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Saturday, September 9, 2023Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Alexander Volkov won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:37

Style matchupTai Tuivasa: StrikervsAlexander Volkov: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Alexander Volkov wins(71.3%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Volkov at -238 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Alexander Volkov has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Tai Tuivasa (53.5%).
Alexander Volkov has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tai Tuivasa

Red Corner

Alexander Volkov

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-238

(70%)

1453

Elo

1535

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'7"

190.5 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tai TuivasaL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Dec 22

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24

vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26

DECvs Louie Sutherland · May 26

latest

Alexander VolkovW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexandr Romanov · Mar 23

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Jun 24

vs Ciryl Gane · Dec 24

vs Jailton Almeida · Oct 25

DECvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tai TuivasaMetricAlexander Volkov

3.37

Strikes / min

4.84

4.61

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

42%

Strike defense

54%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.54

58%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.24Δ 3.18 — meaningful gap+1.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tai TuivasaAlexander Volkov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)Alexander Volkov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -82.8|Blue +82.8

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tai TuivasaTargetAlexander Volkov

By target zone

13% acc · 14%

Head

59% acc · 70%

78% acc · 25%

Body

86% acc · 19%

63% acc · 61%

Leg

83% acc · 11%

By position

40% acc · 93%

Distance

63% acc · 77%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

72% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tai Tuivasa rounds

even

Alexander Volkov rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkov edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

51Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Alexander Volkov edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 67

Sig Strikes

93 / 143

42%

Sig Str %

65.5%

30 / 69

Total Strikes

107 / 164

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexander Volkov	51 / 83	53 / 86	0 / 1	0
1	Tai Tuivasa	15 / 39	16 / 40	0 / 0	0
2	Alexander Volkov	42 / 60	54 / 78	0 / 0	1
2	Tai Tuivasa	13 / 28	14 / 29	0 / 0	0

Tai Tuivasa

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17

Alexander Volkov

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights18