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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Tagir Ulanbekov won · SUB R1
Elo1513
Tagir Ulanbekov
Elo1506

Tagir UlanbekovvsNate ManessUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Saturday, November 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tagir Ulanbekov won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:11

Style matchupTagir Ulanbekov: WrestlervsNate Maness: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Tagir Ulanbekov wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Tagir Ulanbekov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tagir Ulanbekov at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Nate Maness has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Tagir Ulanbekov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tagir Ulanbekov
Red Corner
VS
Nate Maness
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+205
(33%)
1513
Elo
1506
34
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tagir Ulanbekov
oldest →
L
vs Tim Elliott · Mar 22
W
SUBvs Cody Durden · Dec 23
W
vs Clayton Carpenter · Jan 25
W
vs Azat Maksum · Jun 25
L
SUBvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Nov 25
latest
Nate ManessW2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Luke Sanders · Nov 20
W
KOvs Tony Gravely · Sep 21
L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jun 22
W
KOvs Mateus Mendonca · Oct 23
W
vs Jimmy Flick · Jun 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tagir UlanbekovMetricNate Maness
3.01
Strikes / min
3.14
3.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.88
50%
Strike defense
42%
2.73
TDs / 15 min
0.68
63%
Takedown defense
80%
1.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.43evenly matched on net striking-0.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1511 vs 1530Strikes3.2 vs 3.1Takedowns3.7 vs 0.7Sub Atts2.10 vs 0.70Form-0.0 vs -0.1
Tagir UlanbekovNate Maness

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Tagir Ulanbekov(8 fights)Nate Maness(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +7.1|Blue -7.1
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tagir UlanbekovTargetNate Maness

By target zone

4
50% acc · 100%
Head
2
25% acc · 50%
0
0% acc
Body
1
100% acc · 25%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 25%

By position

2
33% acc · 50%
Distance
3
33% acc · 75%
0
0% acc
Clinch
0
2
100% acc · 50%
Ground
1
100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Tagir Ulanbekov rounds
0
even
0
Nate Maness rounds
Round 1Tagir Ulanbekov edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control1:34
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
4 / 9
Sig Strikes
4 / 10
44%
Sig Str %
40%
9 / 14
Total Strikes
23 / 30
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:34
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Nate Maness4 / 1023 / 300 / 00
1Tagir Ulanbekov4 / 99 / 141 / 21

Tagir Ulanbekov

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights8

Nate Maness

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7