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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Kyoji Horiguchi won · SUB R3

Elo1513

Elo1514

Tagir UlanbekovvsKyoji HoriguchiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Saturday, November 22, 2025Doha, Qatar

Official fight result

Kyoji Horiguchi won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:18

Style matchupTagir Ulanbekov: WrestlervsKyoji Horiguchi: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Tagir Ulanbekov wins(52.1%)

Actual result: Kyoji Horiguchi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tagir Ulanbekov at -235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tagir Ulanbekov enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Kyoji Horiguchi has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Tagir Ulanbekov (53.5%).
Tagir Ulanbekov has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tagir Ulanbekov

Red Corner

Kyoji Horiguchi

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+194

(34%)

1513

Elo

1514

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'4"

177.8 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tagir UlanbekovW4 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Elliott · Mar 22

SUBvs Nate Maness · Nov 22

SUBvs Cody Durden · Dec 23

vs Clayton Carpenter · Jan 25

vs Azat Maksum · Jun 25

latest

Kyoji Horiguchi

oldest →

vs Chico Camus · Sep 15

vs Neil Seery · May 16

vs Ali Bagautinov · Nov 16

vs Amir Albazi · Feb 26

KOvs Manel Kape · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tagir UlanbekovMetricKyoji Horiguchi

3.01

Strikes / min

3.77

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.13

50%

Strike defense

63%

2.73

TDs / 15 min

1.61

63%

Takedown defense

61%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.43Δ 2.07 — meaningful gap+1.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tagir UlanbekovKyoji Horiguchi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tagir Ulanbekov(8 fights)Kyoji Horiguchi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -3136.0|Blue +3136.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tagir UlanbekovTargetKyoji Horiguchi

By target zone

17% acc · 50%

Head

60% acc · 73%

25% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 8%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

69% acc · 18%

By position

24% acc · 100%

Distance

61% acc · 51%

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

73% acc · 49%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tagir Ulanbekov rounds

even

Kyoji Horiguchi rounds

Round 1Kyoji Horiguchi edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control1:25

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Kyoji Horiguchi edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:32Control

Round 3Kyoji Horiguchi edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:02Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 27

Sig Strikes

49 / 77

26.5%

Sig Str %

63%

10 / 32

Total Strikes

120 / 157

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:25

Ctrl Time

5:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kyoji Horiguchi	16 / 25	36 / 45	0 / 1	0
1	Tagir Ulanbekov	5 / 24	5 / 25	1 / 1	0
2	Kyoji Horiguchi	13 / 24	47 / 64	0 / 0	0
2	Tagir Ulanbekov	1 / 3	5 / 7	0 / 1	1
3	Kyoji Horiguchi	20 / 28	37 / 48	0 / 0	1
3	Tagir Ulanbekov	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0

Tagir Ulanbekov

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8

Kyoji Horiguchi

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights11