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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tagir Ulanbekov won · SUB R2

Elo1513

Elo1458

Tagir UlanbekovvsCody DurdenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Saturday, December 16, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tagir Ulanbekov won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:25

Style matchupTagir Ulanbekov: WrestlervsCody Durden: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tagir Ulanbekov wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Tagir Ulanbekov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Tale of the Tape

Tagir Ulanbekov

Red Corner

Cody Durden

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1513

Elo

1458

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tagir Ulanbekov

oldest →

vs Tim Elliott · Mar 22

SUBvs Nate Maness · Nov 22

vs Clayton Carpenter · Jan 25

vs Azat Maksum · Jun 25

SUBvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Nov 25

latest

Cody Durden

oldest →

KOvs Jose Ochoa · Jun 25

SUBvs Allan Nascimento · Nov 25

vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · Mar 26

DECvs Jafel Filho · Apr 26

SUBvs Alessandro Costa · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tagir UlanbekovMetricCody Durden

3.01

Strikes / min

3.24

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

3.94

50%

Strike defense

50%

2.73

TDs / 15 min

3.99

63%

Takedown defense

56%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.43evenly matched on net striking-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tagir UlanbekovCody Durden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tagir Ulanbekov(8 fights)Cody Durden(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +54.5|Blue -54.5

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +273.0|Blue -273.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tagir UlanbekovTargetCody Durden

By target zone

54% acc · 79%

Head

71% acc · 69%

80% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 9%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

78% acc · 22%

By position

47% acc · 63%

Distance

71% acc · 75%

100% acc · 21%

Clinch

75% acc · 9%

100% acc · 17%

Ground

100% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tagir Ulanbekov rounds

even

Cody Durden rounds

Round 1Tagir Ulanbekov edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control2:11

Knockdowns1

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Tagir Ulanbekov edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:52

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 41

Sig Strikes

32 / 43

68.5%

Sig Str %

79.5%

45 / 63

Total Strikes

55 / 67

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:03

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cody Durden	23 / 33	35 / 45	0 / 0	0
1	Tagir Ulanbekov	18 / 34	25 / 42	1 / 1	2
2	Cody Durden	9 / 10	20 / 22	0 / 0	0
2	Tagir Ulanbekov	6 / 7	20 / 21	1 / 1	3

Tagir Ulanbekov

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8

Cody Durden

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights17