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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tagir Ulanbekov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1513

Elo1458

Tagir UlanbekovvsClayton CarpenterUFC Prediction Result

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Saturday, January 18, 2025Inglewood, California, USA

Official fight result

Tagir Ulanbekov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTagir Ulanbekov: WrestlervsClayton Carpenter: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Clayton Carpenter wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Tagir Ulanbekov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clayton Carpenter at +310 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Clayton Carpenter threatens submissions; Tagir Ulanbekov has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Tagir Ulanbekov (53.5%).
Tagir Ulanbekov has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tagir Ulanbekov

Red Corner

Clayton Carpenter

Blue Corner

-390

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1513

Elo

1458

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tagir Ulanbekov

oldest →

vs Tim Elliott · Mar 22

SUBvs Nate Maness · Nov 22

SUBvs Cody Durden · Dec 23

vs Azat Maksum · Jun 25

SUBvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Nov 25

latest

Clayton CarpenterL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Juancamilo Ronderos · Feb 23

SUBvs Lucas Rocha · Oct 24

SUBvs Jafel Filho · Oct 25

DECvs Jose Ochoa · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tagir UlanbekovMetricClayton Carpenter

3.01

Strikes / min

3.88

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.47

50%

Strike defense

49%

2.73

TDs / 15 min

1.75

63%

Takedown defense

50%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.43evenly matched on net striking-0.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tagir UlanbekovClayton Carpenter

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tagir Ulanbekov(8 fights)Clayton Carpenter(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +54.9|Blue -54.9

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +301.0|Blue -301.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tagir UlanbekovTargetClayton Carpenter

By target zone

51% acc · 83%

Head

50% acc · 48%

100% acc · 12%

Body

64% acc · 21%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

87% acc · 31%

By position

49% acc · 64%

Distance

50% acc · 60%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

83% acc · 12%

72% acc · 31%

Ground

92% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tagir Ulanbekov rounds

even

Clayton Carpenter rounds

Round 1Tagir Ulanbekov edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control2:30

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 2Clayton Carpenter edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:20

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:32Control

Round 3Tagir Ulanbekov edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:59

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 75

Sig Strikes

42 / 69

55%

Sig Str %

60.7%

100 / 138

Total Strikes

86 / 117

3 / 6

TDs

1 / 4

61%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

6:49

Ctrl Time

3:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Clayton Carpenter	18 / 29	30 / 43	0 / 1
1	Tagir Ulanbekov	19 / 32	26 / 42	1 / 2
2	Clayton Carpenter	15 / 20	24 / 30	1 / 1
2	Tagir Ulanbekov	10 / 19	30 / 41	1 / 3
3	Clayton Carpenter	9 / 20	32 / 44	0 / 2
3	Tagir Ulanbekov	13 / 24	44 / 55	1 / 1

Tagir Ulanbekov

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8

Clayton Carpenter

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights5