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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tagir Ulanbekov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1513

Elo1467

Tagir UlanbekovvsAzat MaksumUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, June 21, 2025Baku, Azerbaijan

Official fight result

Tagir Ulanbekov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTagir Ulanbekov: WrestlervsAzat Maksum: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tagir Ulanbekov wins(77.6%)

Actual result: Tagir Ulanbekov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tagir Ulanbekov at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Azat Maksum has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tagir Ulanbekov

Red Corner

Azat Maksum

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+385

(21%)

1513

Elo

1467

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tagir Ulanbekov

oldest →

vs Tim Elliott · Mar 22

SUBvs Nate Maness · Nov 22

SUBvs Cody Durden · Dec 23

vs Clayton Carpenter · Jan 25

SUBvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Nov 25

latest

Azat MaksumL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tyson Nam · Jul 23

vs Charles Johnson · Feb 24

vs Mitch Raposo · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tagir UlanbekovMetricAzat Maksum

3.01

Strikes / min

2.75

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

4.25

50%

Strike defense

52%

2.73

TDs / 15 min

3.50

63%

Takedown defense

85%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.43Δ 1.07 — meaningful gap-1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tagir UlanbekovAzat Maksum

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tagir Ulanbekov(8 fights)Azat Maksum(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +45.5|Blue -45.5

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -350.0|Blue +350.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tagir UlanbekovTargetAzat Maksum

By target zone

54% acc · 82%

Head

31% acc · 65%

92% acc · 16%

Body

67% acc · 32%

50% acc · 1%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

54% acc · 84%

Distance

34% acc · 73%

85% acc · 16%

Clinch

65% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tagir Ulanbekov rounds

even

Azat Maksum rounds

Round 1Tagir Ulanbekov edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control1:11

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tagir Ulanbekov edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control1:28

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 3Azat Maksum edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:03

25Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 118

Sig Strikes

62 / 159

57.3%

Sig Str %

38.3%

78 / 134

Total Strikes

76 / 177

0 / 8

TDs

3 / 7

TD %

41.5%

Sub Att

Rev

3:42

Ctrl Time

0:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Azat Maksum	18 / 47	18 / 47	0 / 0	0
1	Tagir Ulanbekov	19 / 37	23 / 42	0 / 4	0
2	Azat Maksum	19 / 52	22 / 55	1 / 3	0
2	Tagir Ulanbekov	25 / 43	28 / 48	0 / 2	1
3	Azat Maksum	25 / 60	36 / 75	2 / 4	0
3	Tagir Ulanbekov	24 / 38	27 / 44	0 / 2	0

Tagir Ulanbekov

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8

Azat Maksum

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4