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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tagir Ulanbekov won · S-DEC R3

Elo1513

Elo1523

Tagir UlanbekovvsAllan NascimentoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Saturday, October 30, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Tagir Ulanbekov won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTagir Ulanbekov: WrestlervsAllan Nascimento: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Tagir Ulanbekov wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Tagir Ulanbekov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tagir Ulanbekov at -425 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Allan Nascimento threatens submissions; Tagir Ulanbekov has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Tagir Ulanbekov has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tagir Ulanbekov (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tagir Ulanbekov

Red Corner

Allan Nascimento

Blue Corner

-425

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1513

Elo

1523

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tagir Ulanbekov

oldest →

SUBvs Nate Maness · Nov 22

SUBvs Cody Durden · Dec 23

vs Clayton Carpenter · Jan 25

vs Azat Maksum · Jun 25

SUBvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Nov 25

latest

Allan Nascimento

oldest →

vs Jake Hadley · May 22

SUBvs Carlos Hernandez · Jan 23

vs Jafel Filho · May 25

SUBvs Cody Durden · Nov 25

DECvs Mitch Raposo · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tagir UlanbekovMetricAllan Nascimento

3.01

Strikes / min

3.06

3.44

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

50%

Strike defense

52%

2.73

TDs / 15 min

1.26

63%

Takedown defense

37%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tagir UlanbekovAllan Nascimento

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tagir Ulanbekov(8 fights)Allan Nascimento(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.5|Blue +10.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tagir UlanbekovTargetAllan Nascimento

By target zone

43% acc · 89%

Head

54% acc · 52%

100% acc · 6%

Body

67% acc · 8%

50% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 40%

By position

31% acc · 44%

Distance

56% acc · 56%

Clinch

50% acc · 4%

71% acc · 56%

Ground

100% acc · 40%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tagir Ulanbekov rounds

even

Allan Nascimento rounds

Round 1Tagir Ulanbekov edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control3:09

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Tagir Ulanbekov edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control4:07

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tagir Ulanbekov edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control4:48

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 40

Sig Strikes

25 / 37

47.3%

Sig Str %

66%

62 / 87

Total Strikes

74 / 86

4 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

83.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

12:04

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Allan Nascimento	10 / 17	11 / 18	0 / 1	1
1	Tagir Ulanbekov	5 / 18	5 / 19	1 / 2	1
2	Allan Nascimento	12 / 15	32 / 35	0 / 0	1
2	Tagir Ulanbekov	4 / 10	26 / 33	2 / 2	0
3	Allan Nascimento	3 / 5	31 / 33	0 / 0	0
3	Tagir Ulanbekov	9 / 12	31 / 35	1 / 1	0

Tagir Ulanbekov

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8

Allan Nascimento

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6