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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Azamat Murzakanov won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1470

Elo1536

Tafon NchukwivsAzamat MurzakanovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, March 12, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Azamat Murzakanov won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:44

Style matchupTafon Nchukwi: Pressure fightervsAzamat Murzakanov: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Tafon Nchukwi wins(72.8%)

Actual result: Azamat Murzakanov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tafon Nchukwi at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Azamat Murzakanov is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Tafon Nchukwi has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Azamat Murzakanov has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Azamat Murzakanov (53.5%).
Tafon Nchukwi has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tafon Nchukwi

Red Corner

Azamat Murzakanov

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1470

Elo

1536

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

5'10"

195.58 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tafon NchukwiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jamie Pickett · Dec 20

vs Junyong Park · May 21

vs Mike Rodriguez · Sep 21

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Jun 22

vs AJ Dobson · Aug 23

latest

Azamat Murzakanov

oldest →

vs Dustin Jacoby · Apr 23

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 24

KOvs Brendson Ribeiro · Jun 25

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 25

KOvs Paulo Costa · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tafon NchukwiMetricAzamat Murzakanov

5.57

Strikes / min

4.40

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

3.20

54%

Strike defense

56%

0.76

TDs / 15 min

0.68

64%

Takedown defense

88%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.46evenly matched on net striking+1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tafon NchukwiAzamat Murzakanov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tafon Nchukwi(6 fights)Azamat Murzakanov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -65.6|Blue +65.6

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tafon NchukwiTargetAzamat Murzakanov

By target zone

24% acc · 33%

Head

42% acc · 89%

63% acc · 40%

Body

38% acc · 11%

100% acc · 28%

Leg

0% acc

By position

40% acc · 81%

Distance

39% acc · 93%

80% acc · 19%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tafon Nchukwi rounds

even

Azamat Murzakanov rounds

Round 1Tafon Nchukwi edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:14

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2Tafon Nchukwi edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 3Azamat Murzakanov edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 98

Sig Strikes

28 / 69

35.3%

Sig Str %

40.3%

50 / 105

Total Strikes

28 / 70

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 5

—

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

0:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Azamat Murzakanov	13 / 31	13 / 32	0 / 2
1	Tafon Nchukwi	17 / 40	24 / 47	0 / 0
2	Azamat Murzakanov	12 / 31	12 / 31	1 / 3
2	Tafon Nchukwi	25 / 52	25 / 52	0 / 0
3	Azamat Murzakanov	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 0
3	Tafon Nchukwi	1 / 6	1 / 6	0 / 0

Tafon Nchukwi

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights6

Azamat Murzakanov

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6