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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jon Tuck won · SUB R1
Elo1491
Elo1491

Tae Hyun BangvsJon TuckUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber · Saturday, May 16, 2015Manila, Philippines

Official fight result

Jon Tuck won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:56

Model Prediction: Jon Tuck wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Jon Tuck wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Tuck at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jon Tuck threatens submissions; Tae Hyun Bang has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Tae Hyun Bang (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Tae Hyun Bang
Red Corner
VS
Jon Tuck
Blue Corner
+190
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-230
(70%)
1491
Elo
1491
43
Age
41
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tae Hyun Bang
oldest →
L
vs Mairbek Taisumov · Jan 14
W
KOvs Kajan Johnson · Jun 14
W
vs Leo Kuntz · Nov 15
L
vs Nick Hein · Sep 16
latest
Jon Tuck
oldest →
L
vs Kevin Lee · Sep 14
L
vs Josh Emmett · May 16
L
vs Damien Brown · Nov 16
W
SUBvs Takanori Gomi · Jun 17
L
vs Drew Dober · Aug 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tae Hyun BangMetricJon Tuck
2.72
Strikes / min
3.00
2.07
Strikes absorbed / min
3.74
66%
Strike defense
60%
0.49
TDs / 15 min
0.42
57%
Takedown defense
50%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.65Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap-0.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1499Strikes30.0 vs 44.8Takedowns0.0 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.00Form0.2 vs -0.2
Tae Hyun BangJon Tuck

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Tae Hyun Bang(5 fights)Jon Tuck(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +105.0|Blue -105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tae Hyun BangTargetJon Tuck

By target zone

6
25% acc · 50%
Head
7
30% acc · 54%
3
60% acc · 25%
Body
4
100% acc · 31%
3
60% acc · 25%
Leg
2
50% acc · 15%

By position

12
36% acc · 100%
Distance
9
39% acc · 69%
0
0% acc
Clinch
2
50% acc · 15%
0
Ground
2
50% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Tae Hyun Bang rounds
0
even
1
Jon Tuck rounds
Round 1Jon Tuck edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:01Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
12 / 34
Sig Strikes
13 / 31
35%
Sig Str %
41%
12 / 34
Total Strikes
13 / 31
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jon Tuck13 / 3113 / 310 / 01
1Tae Hyun Bang12 / 3412 / 341 / 10

Tae Hyun Bang

StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights5

Jon Tuck

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights9